Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2025: Quiet Start, But Storm Activity Expected to Surge in Late September
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, has so far defied early predictions of high activity. Despite record-warm sea surface temperatures and forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather warning of an above-average season, the first half has been surprisingly subdued. But meteorologists caution: the quiet may not last.
As we move into the second half of the season, conditions are shifting, and new tropical disturbances—like the developing tropical wave 91L—are showing signs of intensifying. Experts say the real action may just be beginning.
Fewer Storms Than Expected—So Far
By mid-September, the Atlantic basin has produced only six named storms, including one major hurricane—Hurricane Erin, which reached Category 5 strength but remained offshore. This is below the historical average of 14.7 named storms and three major hurricanes per season.
According to NOAA’s updated forecast, the 2025 season is still expected to produce:
13–18 named storms
5–9 hurricanes
2–5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the intensity and duration of storms, is currently 30% below average, indicating a slower-than-normal start.
Why Has It Been So Quiet?
Several atmospheric factors have suppressed storm development in recent months:
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Massive plumes of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert have blanketed the Atlantic, stabilizing the atmosphere and preventing storm formation.
Wind Shear: Strong upper-level winds have disrupted the vertical structure of tropical systems, making it harder for them to organize.
Dry Air Intrusions: Pockets of dry air across the Main Development Region (MDR) have choked off convection, the engine behind tropical cyclones.
These conditions have caused multiple tropical waves to fizzle out before reaching storm strength, including the previously promising Invest 91L earlier this month.
Signs of Change: Tropical Wave 91L and Late-Season Surge
Despite the slow start, meteorologists are closely watching tropical wave 91L, located about 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The system has become more organized and is expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm by late this week, possibly threatening Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 91L a 90% chance of development within seven days, marking the first serious threat of the season to the Caribbean.
Historically, 60% of hurricane activity occurs after September 10, the climatological peak of the season. With ocean temperatures still high and wind shear expected to ease, conditions are becoming more favorable for storm formation through October and early November.
Long-Term Forecasts and Climate Trends
Meteorologists are also monitoring broader climate patterns that could influence the remainder of the season:
Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): This tropical weather pattern may shift into a phase that promotes storm development later this month.
La Niña Transition: A possible shift from El Niño to La Niña could reduce wind shear in the Atlantic, creating a more supportive environment for hurricanes.
These factors suggest that while the first half of the season was quiet, the second half could still align with NOAA’s forecast for above-average activity.
Storm Names Remaining for 2025
So far, the 2025 season has produced storms named Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, and Fernand. The next names on the list include:
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
If 91L develops, it will likely be named Gabrielle.
What to Expect in the Weeks Ahead
With more than two months remaining in the season, experts urge coastal communities to stay vigilant. Late-season storms often form quickly and intensify rapidly, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, where water temperatures remain high.
AccuWeather warns that rapid intensification could be a recurring theme this year, similar to past storms like Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Beryl.
Preparedness Tips for Late Hurricane Season
As activity ramps up, here are key steps to stay safe:
Monitor forecasts daily from the NHC and local meteorologists
Update emergency kits with food, water, and medical supplies
Review evacuation plans and shelter locations
Secure property and clear debris that could become airborne
Don’t Let the Quiet Fool You
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may have started slow, but experts agree: the second half could be significantly more active. With tropical wave 91L gaining strength and favorable conditions returning, the coming weeks may bring the kind of storm activity forecasters warned about months ago.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and keep an eye on the tropics—because hurricane season is far from over.
For real-time updates and storm tracking, visit the or read the full seasonal outlook from . Let me know if you’d like a breakdown of storm names, historical comparisons, or emergency planning guides.
