Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. August 6, 2021 Fareed on America's 'Cold Peace' with China Are the US and China locked in a new "cold war"? Not exactly, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column, noting critical differences between America's growing rivalry with China and its more straightforward standoff with the USSR.
The economic intertwinement of America and China, in the context of a more-globalized economy, lend more nuance to today's geopolitical competition, Fareed writes. And while China is rising, it faces its own challenges and is not on the verge of world domination.
"Can Washington embrace the complexity of this challenge?" Fareed asks. "It is facing an economic powerhouse that, unlike Germany and Japan, is not dependent on the United States for its security. It faces a new great power that is not a democracy and has different values and beliefs, and yet has not occupied and controlled countries as Stalin's Russia did during the 1940s (which is what triggered the Cold War). And this is all happening in a world in which international trade has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. It's not a new Cold War but something much more complicated: a Cold Peace." How Will the Taiwan Saga End? Many an observer has wondered if mainland China will invade Taiwan. But in the current issue of The New York Times Magazine, a long essay by Sarah Topol traces Taiwan's resistance to Beijing's softer forms of influence, chronicling the story of a Taiwanese activist who has supported Hong Kong's protesters by helping to exfiltrate them amid the Chinese Communist Party's crackdown on dissent.
Taiwan's political history is complicated—even in its own past policies, Taiwan has laid implicit claim to all of mainland China, leaving ambiguity as to whether it has considered itself a distinct country—but as Beijing seeks to "erase" any notion of Taiwan as an independent state by overturning its global diplomatic recognition piece by piece, Topol asks broadly if Beijing's creeping authority over Hong Kong isn't a prelude to what may be in store for Taiwan. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is facing the political problem extreme weather events can bring, The Economist writes, as wildfires along the Aegean coast pose a challenge.
"Mr Erdogan, an authoritarian leader admired by his supporters as a capable manager, has not shone," in responding to them, the magazine writes. "On July 31st he arrived in Marmaris, an area besieged by the fires. His motorcade blocked traffic as he tossed packages of tea from his bus at local residents. Days later, he pledged that the government would rebuild destroyed property and cover the rents of those left homeless. ... Mr Erdogan's ministers have promised to keep developers away from the areas scorched by this summer's fires. Even if they stick to their word, the fires have shown how much harder it has become to keep climate change at bay." Delta Plagues the Countryside As the Delta variant spreads, experts have pointed to the danger faced by those without vaccine- or illness-and-recovery-induced Covid-19 immunity. At Nature, Smriti Mallapaty writes that Delta seems to be sweeping through rural areas in Asia that experienced less Covid-19 transmission in earlier waves, pointing to rural India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia as evidence of the trend—though it stands to reason, Mallapaty notes, citing experts, that largely unvaccinated regions like Africa could also see rural-driven spikes.
When State-Building Failed in the US Though Americans may tend to see post-conflict state-building as something that happens overseas, a recent paper by Daniel Byman in the MIT journal International Security approaches America's post-Civil War era of Reconstruction through that lens. As other scholars have argued, the international community sometimes rushes to call for democratic elections after a civil war, which can be counterproductive, as domestic security, the rule of law, and institutions must be in place before a democratic society can proceed to flourish.
Byman points to Reconstruction as a prime example, criticizing the withdrawal of Union troops before the South could be stabilized and lamenting the success of White-supremacist militias in disrupting the recovery. "Reconstruction's failure illustrates four important policy implications for ongoing conflicts," Byman writes. "First, it suggests the dangers of half measures. The United States sought to dramatically reshape the American South on the cheap, in terms of both troop levels and time. Second, when the U.S. government seeks to promote democracy in post-conflict societies, it must ensure the democratic rule of law, without which elections can become instruments of tyranny. Third, failed efforts to install democracy and rebuild governments can leave those who do the most to make things better the most vulnerable. … These findings illustrate a fourth, even more important implication: Reconstruction demonstrates that a common policy recommendation—compromise with the losers after a civil war—is often fraught. Negotiations and compromise can foster peace, but they may do so at the price of social justice. … Without strong law and order, even small organizations could play the role of spoiler. ... Radical Republicans focused on voting, but true democracy demands the democratic rule of law." |
