HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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August 12, 2021

The Pandemic, Pt. II

In another thorough essay, The Atlantic's Ed Yong writes that the Delta variant has given the pandemic a new "endgame," as "the 'zero COVID' dream of fully stamping out the virus is a fantasy." Delta's enhanced transmissibility means herd immunity might require "vaccinating more than 90% of people," Yong writes—a nearly impossible task. 
 
"Instead, the pandemic ends when almost everyone has immunity, preferably because they were vaccinated or alternatively because they were infected and survived. When that happens, the cycle of surges will stop and the pandemic will peter out. The new coronavirus will become endemic—a recurring part of our lives like its four cousins that cause common colds. It will be less of a problem, not because it has changed but because it is no longer novel and people are no longer immunologically vulnerable. Endemicity was always the likely outcome … But likely is now unavoidable."
 
Just about everyone is likely to encounter Covid-19 someday, Yong writes, but people with immunity are unlikely to fall seriously ill; meanwhile, it will be important to track new Covid-19 clusters and sequence viral genomes to catch any new, more-dangerous variants swiftly, if they emerge.

Boosters or Bust?

"Countries including Israel and Hungary have already started with booster vaccinations for high-risk patients, and Germany, France and the United Kingdom plan to follow suit," Claus Hecking, Katherine Rydlink, and Thomas Schulz note in a Der Spiegel essay examining momentum for Covid-19 booster shots in rich countries. An extra shot is believed to enhance immunity, they write, and the EU has already ordered 1.8 billion more doses.
 
As citizens of developing countries still await their first shots, the movement toward boosters remains controversial: The World Health Organization is among its detractors, having cautioned against doling out boosters before the end of September, Hecking, Rydlink, and Schulz point out.

Can Digital Currencies Displace the Dollar?

"In this brave new digital world, any national currency will be as easy to use in cross-border payments as any other," Barry Eichengreen writes in a Project Syndicate op-ed, asking if national digital currencies—currently being suggested for various countries—might one day supplant the US dollar as the dominant global tender. At Nikkei Asia, Narayanan Somasundaram asks if China's still-in-development digital yuan, in particular, might one day knock the dollar off its pedestal.

Must Afghanistan Fall?

As the Taliban seizes more territory, The Economist seconds the argument that a limited US mission could keep Afghanistan's central government afloat. The US "could deploy special forces on brief sorties to bolster the Afghan army, for instance," the magazine writes. "It could expand the use of carriers to provide air support, or lean on neighbouring countries to allow at least temporary access to American aircraft. Above all, [President Joe] Biden could signal that he does not intend to abandon Afghanistan to its fate—an impression that is doing more than anything else to hasten the Taliban's advance."
 
As concern grows for the fate of Afghans, so has the bitterness of opprobrium directed at the US and NATO, for their withdrawal. The Economist seconds that, too, calling former US President Donald Trump's decision to leave, which Biden has upheld, a "callous" one.

Trillions in Spending and 'Nation-Building at Home'

Now that two major spending bills have made their way through the US Senate—a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and a $3.5 trillion budget resolution geared toward "human" infrastructure, including things like universal pre-kindergarten education and a new child-care benefit—CNN's Stephen Collinson writes that Joe Biden's presidency is on the cusp of enacting an important shift, even if the bills face a "complicated future" as the (Democrat-controlled) House takes them up.
 
"Every president since George W. Bush has said it's time to leave Afghanistan and turn to nation building at home," Collison writes. "But only Joe Biden is getting it done. His huge gamble on more than $4.5 trillion in infrastructure spending and an exit from America's longest war, which threatens to trigger a foreign policy disaster, are both unfolding in a dramatic August that could define his presidency."
 
The Financial Times editorial board suggests the spending initiative is a big deal, too, writing: "If both these bills pass, Biden will have shown that Washington can work. The president will also have made a break with the prevailing fiscal orthodoxy since Ronald Reagan, demonstrating that the US can enact big spending and investment bills without crowding out the private sector. He will have shown, too, that democracies can still deliver ambitious investment plans—rebuffing claims by China and other autocracies that these are beyond the sclerotic systems of the west."