HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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October 20, 2021

America's Limitations on Taiwan

There's been no dearth of apprehension surrounding Taiwan lately. In May, The Economist called the Taiwan Strait the most dangerous place on earth. A new Der Spiegel article points to growing militarization in the Pacific, with Taiwan—and tensions between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei—as the centerpiece. At a Senate confirmation hearing today, President Joe Biden's nominee as ambassador to China noted Beijing's recent aggressiveness.
 
But against calls for a harder line, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass cautions that "the US does not have a free hand with Taiwan."
 
Some in America want to concede that Taiwan's takeover by Beijing is foregone; others want to cross Beijing's clear red lines and back Taiwanese independence. Haass advocates a middle path: building up US military capabilities, perhaps authorizing the President to use force if Beijing attempts an invasion, warning Taipei to act cautiously, and making it clear to Beijing that the status quo of US policy—officially recognizing only one Chinese government while maintaining unofficial ties with Taiwan's—is still in place.
 
"As much as China's leaders want Taiwan, they also want to maintain power and the Communist Party's political monopoly," Haass writes. "A costly war of choice to conquer Taiwan could jeopardize this. But if Taiwan were to declare independence, or the US were to recognize Taiwan as sovereign, many on the mainland would view an invasion of the island as a war of necessity. The goal of US policy should be to deter the former and avoid the latter."

The Missile Scare That Shouldn't Have Been?

After reports of a Chinese hypersonic missile test—which Beijing says it wasn't—raised alarms in the US, Fred Kaplan writes for Slate that there's no reason to get worked up: Extant ICBMs themselves are "hypersonic," and America's missile defenses may not be particularly effective anyway, regardless of what China is testing. What's more dangerous than a missile test, Kaplan writes, is overheated reaction that ratchets up the likelihood of an arms race and, consequently, war.

How Will 'The Great Resignation' Pan Out?

Economists and journalists have called it "The Great Resignation": For months, American workers have been quitting their jobs at high rates. At the same time, noteworthy strikes have revealed a newfound boldness by labor, John Cassidy writes for The New Yorker. 
 
What's behind this? Some say employers have demanded too much for too long; at NPR's Planet Money newsletter, Greg Rosalsky surfaces the notion that Covid-19 may have changed economic decision-making indelibly, in the same way the Great Depression did for a generation. What many seem to agree, and what The Washington Post's Heather Long detailed to Fareed on Sunday's GPS, is that the pandemic has prompted workers to reassess how they value work and work-life balance.
 
Have the scales of power tipped durably toward labor? "If the current imbalance between vacancies and workers seeking employment continues for an expanded period, more firms could be forced to pay higher wages, and workers could recover some of the losses they have suffered," Cassidy writes. Then again, "[i]f the number of COVID-19 cases is brought permanently under control, many people who have left the labor force—such as those nearing retirement age, and parents who quit their jobs to look after children—could be drawn back. If that happened, and the imbalance between vacancies and job-takers vanished, leverage could quickly revert to the side of the employers."

Is the Duterte Era Ending?

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is barred from seeking a second, six-year presidential term by a constitutional limit—so he signaled he would run instead for vice president, while his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte Carpio, runs for the top job. But earlier this month, Duterte said he would retire from politics altogether.

At Nikkei Asia, Richard Heydarian writes that Duterte's plan to stick around flopped amid scandals and missteps. Opponents "have been actively tapping into widespread disillusionment with Duterte himself, who has overseen one of Asia's worst [Covid-19] recessions as well as some of the region's highest infection rates," Heydarian writes. "After five years of populist incompetence, from the scorched-earth drug war to a fruitless flirtation with Beijing, the tide is turning against Duterte and his anointed successors."

COP—for Real This Time

Dignitaries will gather in Scotland on Oct. 31 for COP26, the latest iteration of the yearly global climate-change conference. At the Financial Times, Martin Wolf writes that with the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issuing even more dire warnings for the planet, this year's event will no longer be a practice run.
 
The International Energy Agency has deemed a full (or full enough) green conversion to be feasible, Wolf notes; what's needed are investment and will. "While there seems to be a clear path towards a zero-emissions energy economy, it is a really difficult one," Wolf writes. "It is hard technically and even harder politically. On the former, [a recent IEA] report lays out the complexity of bringing in a radically new system, some of whose operating details are still unclear, while ensuring that households and businesses continue to have the energy they not only need, but will insist upon. On the latter, the most pressing concern of governments must be exactly this: lighting, heating, cooling and transportation are not 'nice to have'. If people who are used to these find them unavailable or unaffordable, they will react with incandescent fury. Our current predicament of high energy prices is a sobering warning. If this energy revolution is to happen, it must be planned and executed with an understanding of both the many complexities and the risks of a political backlash should it go wrong."