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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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October 22, 2021

Fareed: We Need a Green Transition. We Also Need a Plan.

With global energy prices high and (in some cases) rising, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column that what's happening is simple.
 
"Much of the world has stopped investing in fossil fuels (for good reasons), which has led to less supply of them," Fareed writes. "But we do not have sufficient green energy to replace fossil fuels today." Short-term planning failures, like a paucity of reserves, are partly to blame for current problems—but because of the larger trend, they've produced a crisis.
 
If a green-energy transition is to happen, Fareed writes, we'll need a strategy. An effective one would acknowledge that we must "cut emissions today while keeping energy flowing." The best near-term option is to switch from coal to relatively clean natural gas, Fareed writes. But if we don't manage the shift to renewables, "we will face more energy shocks, which could easily develop into a backlash against green policies. And then the Democrat in the White House, Joe Biden, will begin to look a lot like his predecessor from the 1970s Jimmy Carter."

If the Issue Is Forced, Should the US Really Go to War Over Taiwan?

President Joe Biden made news Thursday by saying the US would come to Taiwan's defense if Beijing attacked it; shortly thereafter, a White House official asserted US policy had not changed. What's going on? 
 
Biden appears to be walking a line somewhat akin to that proposed by Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass, who wrote recently for Project Syndicate that the US could firm up its commitment to Taiwan without ending its "One China policy" of acknowledging China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan while maintaining informal ties with Taipei. Not everyone agrees with that approach: Former National Security Adviser John Bolton recently advocated, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, for crossing Beijing and recognizing Taiwan as an independent country. 
 
Regardless, some see war as legitimately possible. This summer, Oriana Skylar Mastro wrote convincingly in Foreign Affairs that Beijing might be tempted to try to seize the island by force. William Galston recently opined in the Journal that "a once-unthinkable event—a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan—has become possible, perhaps even likely."
 
Aside from the debates over geopolitics and strategy, Daniel Davis argues at 1945 that defending Taiwan's partial autonomy is not worth American lives—and that, barring a more energetic commitment from Taiwan itself, it would be "immoral" to send US forces into harm's way.
 
Note to readers: Fareed will discuss tensions over Taiwan with Richard Haass and Oriana Skylar Mastro on Sunday's GPS.

Brazil's Disinformation Problem—and What's Being Done About It

The popularity of social media as a way to access the Internet has made disinformation a big problem for Brazil, Mariana Palau writes for Americas Quarterly, suggesting it was among the key factors facilitating right-wing populist President Jair Bolsonaro's rise. As it has in the Philippines, social media has also become a venue for threats and harassment of journalists in Brazil, as Palau details.
 
Bolsonaro's opponents view disinformation as a problem, and as Palau writes, they've attempted various countermeasures: Brazil's Congress has launched a series of investigations, including into "criminal misinformation networks" and misinformation in the context of Covid-19. Legislators have proposed "at least 45 bills aimed at curbing the spread of fake news," but it's unclear to Palau how workable they are in design. Whether or not these efforts move forward, they're part of broader efforts in Latin America to clean up the online-information ecosystem more actively—and efforts by Brazilian senators to hold Bolsonaro to account for a misinformative and slow-footed Covid-19 response.

Is the Supply Chain Merely Failing a Stress Test?

The global supply chain is backed up, as many have noted, thanks in part to shortages of stevedores and truck drivers—plus a boost in durable-goods demand—all widely attributed to the pandemic. But at the Financial Times, Rana Foroohar writes that Covid-19 isn't the only problem: Global supply chains have been running on thin margins to begin with, and Covid-19 has merely revealed a networked economy already pushed to the brink.

Madeleine Albright Is Optimistic About Democracy

Though democracy has been eroding worldwide for years, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright sees the trend reversing. In a Foreign Affairs op-ed, Albright writes that autocrats are unpopular, while democracy is; if one illiberal leader were to be forced from power, Albright suggests more would follow, drawing a parallel to Poland's Solidarity movement and the momentum it generated against communism.

Even so, America's standing as a democratic champion has taken an undeniable hit, and Albright writes that pro-democracy allies are "anxious for Washington to regain its voice on matters of liberty and human rights."