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Tonight: The world is still on fire. Get used to it.

Also, a programming note: We're taking Monday off! Why? Just cuz — everyone needs a vacay, you know? But the funny and talented Dave will be back next Tuesday for all your Nightcap needs (it really is about time that guy started pulling his weight around here). 

By Allison Morrow

📉 BUCKLE UP

It's almost 2022, but 2020 isn't done with us yet.

 

Despite good news on vaccinations and solid economic growth, the supply chain disaster, a potentially crippling energy shortage, and the US government's reliably partisan gridlock have got the world in a vise grip. And we won't be free of it anytime soon.

 

The Biden administration is doing what it can. On Wednesday, the White House announced a "90-day sprint" to unclog port congestion, shifting the Port of Los Angeles to a 24/7 schedule and leaning on the private sector to expand their overnight operations.

 

But the government can only do so much. The move to a 24/7 schedule is "low-hanging fruit," said Geoff Freeman, CEO of the Consumer Brands Association. Ports overseas have been operating that way for months.

 

BEYOND PORTS

The supply chain problem goes much deeper than traffic jams. Truck drivers, for example, are in high demand just about everywhere. But so are trucks, which rely on computer chips, which are — you guessed it — backordered till the end of time.

 

The majority of financial executives expect the supply problems to last "well into" 2022, if not later, according to a survey released Thursday by Duke University.

 

All of that is driving up prices. You don't need a Ph.D in economics to see that, and yet central bankers and economists are still calling price hikes "transitory." The Federal Reserve has used the term so much, and for so long, it's pretty much lost all meaning. 

 

In the same week that we learned the consumer price index soared 5.4% from a year earlier, the official word from the Fed was this: "The staff continued to expect that this year's rise in inflation would prove to be transitory."

 

That line looks like very wishful thinking from the people whose job it is to keep inflation around 2%. Perhaps Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell and co are getting into positive affirmations, where if you say "prices will go down" enough times in the mirror, it'll come true. 

 

A NIP IN THE AIR

 

As if all of that weren't hard enough on consumers: Winter is coming, and the world is facing an acute shortage of energy.

 

American households can expect to spend 54% more for propane, 43% more for home heating oil, 30% more for natural gas and 6% more for electric heating, the US Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. The price spikes are even more dramatic in Europe, where wholesale electricity prices have increased by 200% compared to the 2019 average, according to the European Commission. Coal prices in China are at record highs, and rolling blackouts to conserve energy have already begun. 

 

And just to keep things interesting, US lawmakers are flirting with financial disaster. President Biden was expected to sign a short-term debt ceiling suspension passed by the House this week, averting an imminent default on US debt. But the Treasury says that deal will only get us through December 3, setting up yet another deadline for Congress — just in time for the holidays!

 

It's hard to overstate how bad a default would be. Millions of job losses would undo all of the gains we've made from the worst of the pandemic recession; credit markets would seize up; paychecks to federal workers, Medicare benefits, military salaries and other payments would be halted.

 

If you're exhausted, you're not alone.

 

The global economy is in the depths of a raging hangover, and there's no magic pill to cure it.

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#️⃣ NUMBER OF THE DAY

3.05%

The days of ultra-cheap mortgages could be numbered, as rates rose back above the 3% mark last week. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.05%, according to Freddie Mac, the highest rate since April. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 2.3%

🎉 PARTY ON THE STREET

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🌎 QUOTE OF THE DAY

We need some of the world's greatest brains and minds fixed on trying to repair this planet, not trying to find the next place to go and live.

Prince William slammed the rise of private space tourism by billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, arguing that they should be focused on fixing problems on Earth.

WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON?

🔗 LinkedIn will shut down the local version of its service in China, marking a significant retreat for one of the few large US tech firms still operating in the country. The site, owned by Microsoft, cited a "significantly more challenging operating environment" in China.

 

🚜 About 10,000 members of the United Auto Workers union went on strike against John Deere after workers rejected an earlier wage agreement.

 

🍔 McDonald's testing its McPlant veggie burger in a handful cities, and sadly none of them are New York.

 

🌱 From CNN Business' Risk Takers series: Daniel Humm's Eleven Madison Park, one of the world's most renowned and expensive restaurants, made a bold bet that customers will still pay $335 per person for an all-vegan menu.

 

🐦 TWEET OF THE DAY