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By Rob Picheta

Wednesday, December 8

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK

 

As concern spreads about the Omicron coronavirus variant, a number of top scientists have issued a warning to the world: We're not done with Delta yet.

 

"Omicron is in sight and on the rise and we are right to be concerned and cautious," the World Health Organization's Regional Director for Europe Dr. Hans Kluge said in a statement on Tuesday. But "the problem now is Delta," he added, urging his region to keep focused in its battle against a winter wave of infections.

 

Europe's Delta variant surge has caused record numbers of Covid-19 infections in several countries, and some governments are implementing drastic measures to get a handle on the crisis.

 

Germany declared a lockdown for unvaccinated people last Thursday, and backed plans for mandatory vaccinations in the coming months. That mirrored the playbook in neighboring Austria, while France, Italy and Poland have also announced tighter rules in recent days.

 

On Tuesday came a similar message for the United States. "Be prepared as Omicron spreads. We know that it's already spreading here. Delta's our problem right now, but we need to make sure that we are able to ward off this coming wave of Omicron infections as well by getting vaccinated," said Craig Spencer, the director of global health in emergency medicine at Columbia University Medical Center.

 

It's not clear if or how long it will be until Omicron overtakes Delta to become dominant around the world. In the United Kingdom -- where more than 400 cases have already been identified -- the variant is doubling every two or three days and could peak in January if no measures are taken, Neil Ferguson, a former UK government scientific adviser, told BBC radio on Wednesday. 

 

Forecasts in the US are murkier still. "The question for us here in the United States, now that it is clearly here in at least 15 or more states and in about 40 countries, is: What is it going to be as it competes with a very dominant variant, Delta?" Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN Sunday. 

 

But even as the science on Omicron is being gathered, there is one thing experts agree on: Anything countries and people do now to halt Delta will surely help in the upcoming battle with Omicron.

 

"However we succeed against Delta today is a win over Omicron tomorrow, before it eventually surges," Kluge said on Tuesday. "The tools are the same" to fight both strains, he added.

 

There are early signs that the existing vaccines will provide some level of protection; a preprint of a South African study found the variant only partly evades the Pfizer vaccine, with previous infections and booster shots likely to add extra layers of protection.

 

Preliminary lab studies showed two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may not provide sufficient protection against the Omicron coronavirus variant, but three doses are able to neutralize it, the companies said in a news release on Wednesday.

 

And if new vaccines are needed to target Omicron, Pfizer's CEO has said that the company could have one ready by March.

 

The big question is whether new restrictions will be needed in the meantime -- and that could come down to how quickly Omicron spreads, and how serious the disease is found to be.

 

Initial signs on its severity are "a bit encouraging," but the world must "hold judgment until we get more experience," Fauci told CNN.

 

"It will be unclear for a while how much of this is Omicron spread, how much Omicron is likely to be more of a superspreading virus than Delta," Spencer added on Tuesday. "All indications seem to be that it is more transmissible, but we are still doing that science."

THE LATEST NUMBERS

Source: Johns Hopkins University

YOU ASKED. WE ANSWERED.

Q

Should I avoid Christmas parties due to the Omicron variant?

 

A

It's always prudent to take precautions when gathering with friends or family for the holidays. But in the US and in many other countries, fully vaccinated people are being encouraged to enjoy the season as they normally would.

 

"If you have a vaccinated situation enjoy the holidays with your family in a family setting," Fauci said at the CNN Global Town Hall Wednesday. 

 

If you find yourself in a crowded room and you don't know everyone's vaccination status, it may be advisable to wear a mask, Fauci said. Many countries mandate masks in crowded indoor spaces, whatever the occasion.

 

"I know it's tough as we get into the colder months, but try to do things outdoors more frequently than just indoors," Fauci suggested -- adding that such a tactic is "common sense" and not related to the Omicron variant.

 

And if you're traveling home, the same tips apply: Take a lateral flow test before leaving, use a face covering in airports, on planes and on public transport, and make sure you get your vaccination or booster shot as soon as you're eligible. 

 

Send your questions here. Are you a health care worker fighting Covid-19? Message us on WhatsApp about the challenges you're facing: +1 347-322-0415.

READS OF THE WEEK

 

We all want Omicron to be milder. Here's why it's too soon to know

 

Early reports on the quick spread of the Omicron variant in South Africa were at first frightening, but then began to offer some hope. The new variant may have quickly overtaken other strains of the virus in the country  as it enters the summer, but cases so far appear to have been overwhelmingly mild.

 

Then came a report showing the variant carries a portion of genetic material that's very similar to segments seen in one of the types of coronaviruses that causes the common colds -- one called HCoV-229E. A few researchers said it just might indicate the variant is starting to look more like a nuisance virus than a big killer.

 

It's a tantalizing idea. Many infectious disease experts have been predicting that the novel coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, would go in this direction, evolving into a milder form that joins the annual mix of seasonal respiratory viruses. 

 

Could this be the variant that at least starts it down that path?

 

It is way too soon to start thinking that, several experts told CNN. For one thing, that segment of genetic material may resemble a piece of the common cold virus, but it's a very big stretch from there to say that means SARS-CoV-2 has started to evolve into something milder.

The world could end the pandemic quicker. Here's how

 

The pandemic will not last forever. It will likely continue to fizzle and fade as it heads towards its third year, resurging with new variants and then waning in the face of vaccines, mitigation measures and human behavior. But even if the virus is never stamped out, immunity will improve and the world will eventually be able to live with Covid.

 

On that, experts generally agree. There is, however, a far more pertinent question, the answer to which is frustratingly elusive: How long will it take to get there?

 

And that answer is not up to luck -- it is, at least in large part, within our hands, Rob Picheta writes. Pandemics fade out of view as a result of human efforts like vaccine development, contact tracing, genomic analysis, containment measures and international cooperation. In short, the world has a toolkit to bring an end to the pandemic as quickly as possible.

 

The problem? Even after 20 months, those tools are not being put to best use. "This is the major issue: There was never a plan, (and) there still isn't a plan at a global level," said Andrea Taylor, assistant director of programs at the Duke Global Health Institute. 

 

"We're not good at dealing with global crises as a world -- we don't really have the infrastructure, or leadership, or accountability," she added.

An anime convention may offer the 'earliest looks' at Omicron spread in US

 

Peter McGinn was starting to feel exhausted.

 

It was his last day in New York. He had an exciting four days meeting in person for the first time with friends he made online during the pandemic. They explored the bustling streets of New York City together and saw anime exhibits at the Anime NYC convention.

 

McGinn took a rapid at-home test the next day. He tested positive.

 

"I had such mild symptoms." McGinn said. "If it wasn't for somebody in my party alerting me that they tested positive, I honestly would have thought I had a cold."

 

McGinn's Covid-19 diagnosis was confirmed with a PCR test and lab results revealed that he was infected with the newly identified Omicron coronavirus variant.

 

Among the 30 people that McGinn said he spent time with in New York, 15 total -- including him -- tested positive for Covid-19, and they all had mild symptoms except for one who McGinn said "had a bad day" but did not require hospitalization.

 

Only one person, other than McGinn, has been confirmed to be infected with the Omicron variant, but McGinn said that when he spoke with health officials they told him it's overwhelmingly likely that everyone who tested positive probably was infected with Omicron.

 

Mix-and-match booster shots appear to offer strong protection, so take whichever one you're offered

 

Many countries are offering people different vaccines for their booster shots than they received for their first and second dose, and an increasing amount of evidence shows that the vaccines work well regardless of which you receive.

 

On Tuesday the EU drug regulator, the European Medicines Agency , approved mix-and-match shots for initial and booster doses.

 

There has been "preliminary but consistent evidence" indicating that a mixed vaccine course "is able to induce an expanded breadth of immune responses," the regulator said. 

 

And a study published Monday in The Lancet showed that "a first dose of Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech followed nine weeks later by second dose of Novavax or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines generated a robust immune response," Oxford University said in a news release.

 

It means you can be confident about your level of protection when you arrive for a booster dose, regardless of which vaccine is on offer.

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