HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

February 1, 2022

 

 

 

 

Stephen Collinson and Shelby Rose

North Korea's threat comes of age 

North Korea says it test-fired an intermediate missile, the Hwasong-12, on Sunday, January 30 (local time).

For years, outsiders have dismissed North Korea's regular missile tests as tantrums designed to get attention. But in the wake of its latest launch of an intermediate ballistic missile, it may be time to retire the spoiled child school of diplomatic analysis. 

While the template could fit the current situation — the United States is preoccupied with global crisis and Pyongyang can't get a look — it's too simplistic. It's just as likely that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is using a moment when the United States is stretched to push ahead even faster with his weapons programs. This fits Pyongyang's strategic goals and could pile negotiating chips on the board for any future talks with Washington. The White House reacted to the North's seventh test in the first month of 2022 by saying it was open to negotiations at any time. But North Korea isn't biting at the official-level contacts that Washington is proposing. And President Joe Biden won't emulate former President Donald Trump's cozy photo-ops with one of the world's most brutal dictators. While those chats did slow the pace of testing, they handed Kim huge legitimacy that didn't make the US safer in the long term.

The problem, as always with North Korea, is figuring out exactly what is going on in Kim's mind. "The reality is that the North Koreans almost always have reasons for what they do. And our track record of understanding those ahead of time is not always so great," a US official told CNN's Kevin Liptak and Kylie Atwood.

But Kim seems to be methodically working off a checklist as he tests his broadening arsenal. A next, escalatory step might be for North Korea to conduct more tests on intercontinental ballistic missiles that theoretically could carry a nuclear warhead to US soil. This would increase pressure on Washington and bring Biden or a subsequent President closer to the reality of having to accept Pyongyang as a hostile nuclear power with US territory in its sights. The cost of trying to change that status quo militarily would be carnage on the Korean Peninsula.

And what of Russia and China? Neither necessarily has an interest in an unhinged North Korean tyrant brandishing nuclear weapons. China would be crucial to coaxing North Korea into concessions and both would be needed to effectively punish its behavior. But Moscow and Beijing have their own beefs with the US and it suits them fine for the White House to be saddled with yet another dangerous national security crisis.

The world and America

British PM Boris Johnson is sorry but defiant about boozy parties report

 

The Kremlin accuses the US of stoking hysteria over Ukraine

 

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau tests positive for Covid-19

 

The US slaps new sanctions on Myanmar on coup anniversary

 

Meanwhile in America ... ex-Vice President Mike Pence's former chief of staff testified to the House January 6 committee

 

Kamala Harris drove within yards of a pipe bomb before she was sworn in as VP

 

Investigators probe the death of a former Miss USA at age 30

'Ready no matter what happens'

A meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday was not for the faint of heart.

 

US envoy Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Washington has seen evidence that Russia plans to mass 30,000 troops near the Belarus-Ukraine border, less than two hours north of Kyiv, by early February. It's also got tens of thousands of troops lined up on its own territory. This was just the latest occasion when the US and its allies had used what appears to be declassified intelligence to call Russia out.

 

Russia's Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia, however, couldn't understand what he was doing in the chamber at all. Sidestepping the allegations about Belarus, Nebenzia said that the Kremlin was simply deploying troops inside its own borders and didn't have nefarious designs on its former Soviet-era brethren across the border. "You are almost calling for this. You want it to happen. You're waiting for it to happen, as if you want to make your words become a reality," he fumed.

 

In what could turn out to be a significant sign of things to come, China stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia in opposition to the Western diplomatic front. Its ambassador, Zhang Jun, said Russia's concerns about NATO's posture in Europe were legitimate. "We believe that the security of one country cannot be achieved at the expense of the security of other countries," Zhang said. 

 

While the Security Council meeting was all about deadlocked theatrics, there are some signs that diplomacy is still moving. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to speak by phone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday, though there's no sign the two sides are moving off their entrenched positions. French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a conversation on Monday and welcomed what they said was progress in the Normandy format talks involving the French, the Russians, the Ukrainians and the Germans.

 

Back in Washington, President Joe Biden said he was trying "like the devil" to improve security for US allies and partners while trying to deescalate the crisis.

 

"We continue to urge diplomacy as the best way forward," Biden said. But he warned: "With Russia continuing its build up around Ukraine, we are ready no matter what happens."

 

Biden is also ready to finally name a new ambassador to Kyiv, pending approval from its government. CNN has learned he plans to nominate Bridget Brink, the current US ambassador to Slovakia.

 

Rarely has an ambassador been so aptly named.

Just a few miles from the uproar of the US Capitol and the White House, the normally churning waters of the Potomac River were stilled by a thick layer of ice Monday after a frigid weekend in Washington. (Photo by Stephen Collinson)

Thanks for reading.

On Tuesday, the US House returns from recess. The EU implements a new measure to facilitate free movement during the pandemic. The Philippines will waive quarantine for fully vaccinated international arrivals after two years.

 View in browser  |  All CNN Newsletters

 

Want to easily manage your newsletter subscriptions?

Create your CNN Account

 

Copyright ©  2022 Cable News Network, Inc. A WarnerMedia Company, All rights reserved.

 

 

Our mailing address is:
Cable News Network, Inc. A WarnerMedia Company
1 CNN Center NW
Atlanta, GA 30303-2762

 

Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can unsubscribe from this list.