Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. January 21, 2022 Fareed: In Ukraine Standoff, Putin Is Acting Rationally As Western analysts ask what Russian President Vladimir Putin really wants, Fareed notes in his latest Washington Post column that two recent, insightful essays in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy indicate Putin "has stayed in power since 1999 not by being a reckless gambler but rather by being careful, even rational."
With more than 100,000 Russian troops massed near Ukraine's border and negotiations between Moscow and the West producing no resolution to the threat of war, Putin's behavior may look irrational and bellicose. But Fareed cites key factors to consider: For one, Ukraine is important to Russia, and the possibility of it joining NATO is "a step too far" for Putin. The West cares less about Ukraine than Russia does, and Russia enjoys leverage over the West right now as a supplier of natural gas to Europe.
"Putin is not engaging in reckless adventurism," Fareed writes. "He takes risks, but he has calculated the odds carefully. Right now, they're in his favor." Where the Crisis Could Be Heading "Momentum is building for war in Ukraine," The Economist judges, while adding a caveat: Russian state media does not seem to be preparing the public with pre-invasion propaganda—a good sign, if there is one.
Much attention has been paid to high-level negotiations and Russia's list of demands of the West, which some view as nonstarters. (They include no US nuclear weapons stationed abroad and a halt to NATO expansion.) At Carnegie Europe, Dmitri Trenin writes that diplomatic compromise is possible, for instance on limiting the placement of intermediate-range nukes in Europe. But "[i]t's important to understand that Moscow's demands of the United States and NATO are in fact the strategic goals of Russian policy in Europe," Trenin writes. "Their aim is not to restore the Soviet Union, as some suggest. Rather, the idea is to reframe security in Europe—particularly in Europe's east—as a contractual relationship between the two principal strategic actors in the region, Russia and the United States/NATO … If Russia cannot achieve its goal by diplomatic means, it will need to resort to other tools and methods."
At the Financial Times, former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates argues Putin has "overplayed his hand" and "must use those troops soon or face the humiliation of withdrawing them without achieving anything except pushing Ukraine closer to the west." It's Not Looking Good for Boris Johnson "For [UK Prime Minister Boris] Johnson to be at risk of being brought down by the very MPs he once staked his premiership on shows how much things have changed in the past two years," Katy Balls writes for The Spectator, as Johnson's "Partygate" scandal has turned some so-called "Red Wall" MPs (those who rode Johnson's coattails to seize traditional Labour seats in 2019) against their political benefactor.
At the Financial Times, Camilla Cavendish sums up critics' disgust—"[w]ith its bully boy tactics and boozing revelations, this administration is beginning to resemble the kind of stag do that makes Brits wildly unpopular in some European cities"—while predicting Johnson "will hang on to power even if he only squeaks through with a majority of one."
Johnson's allure, however, has been lost, Helen Lewis argues at The Atlantic: "[H]e used to smell like a winner, and now he doesn't." Could Science Develop a Catch-All Covid-19 Shot? The pandemic has reached a moment of flux, as some experts argue we've turned a corner to a less-dangerous phase. Others warn new variants could arise and that we must bolster viral surveillance to notice them early.
At Bloomberg, Lisa Jarvis raises tentative hope that a big vaccine breakthrough could steer us clear of variant danger. Some researchers hope to develop a catch-all Covid-19 shot, which would expose the immune system to multiple spike proteins seen in multiple variants, the goal being to obviate any need for variant-specific booster shots. In a Businessweek cover story last month, Robert Langreth found the research to be in its early phases—Pfizer's chief scientific officer called the approach mostly "academic" at this point—but encouraging nonetheless. |
