Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. January 28, 2022 Fareed: Putin Faces Ukrainian Headwinds Russian President Vladimir Putin may enjoy real advantages in his standoff with the West over Ukraine, but Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column that not everything is working in Putin's favor.
For one, Fareed points out, as Owen Matthews writes for New Lines Magazine, Putin effectively pushed Ukraine out of Russia's orbit in 2014. By seizing eastern Ukrainian territory in that year, Putin cleaved a sizable portion of ethnic Russians from Ukraine's populace—and removed from Ukraine's electoral map some of the areas where voters seem to view Russia most favorably. That only dampens the prospect of Ukraine electing pro-Russian governments in the future. At the same time, Putin's attempt to counter NATO has backfired, Fareed writes: NATO resolve has strengthened, as members have sent ships to the Black Sea and as some in Sweden and Finland are stressing their countries' freedom to join the alliance.
Russia's goal may be to ensure that Ukraine doesn't join NATO, Fareed writes. "The truth is that Ukraine is unlikely to become a member of NATO anytime soon. … And yet, the United States cannot—and should not—forswear the possibility that Ukraine could join NATO at some point in the future. Between those two realities lies a narrow corridor, a space for creative diplomacy to avert a war that could consume the energies of both sides for years." Western analysts continue to wonder what Russian President Vladimir Putin really wants. To some, he seeks the resurrection of imperial Russia or the USSR; to others, he merely wants Russian interests accommodated.
At Foreign Affairs, Angela Stent lands in the former camp, writing: "Putin may still decide not to invade. But whether he does or not, the Russian president's behavior is being driven by an interlocking set of foreign policy principles that suggest Moscow will be disruptive in the years to come. Call it 'the Putin doctrine.' The core element of this doctrine is getting the West to treat Russia as if it were the Soviet Union, a power to be respected and feared, with special rights in its neighborhood and a voice in every serious international matter. The doctrine holds that only a few states should have this kind of authority, along with complete sovereignty, and that others must bow to their wishes. It entails defending incumbent authoritarian regimes and undermining democracies. And the doctrine is tied together by Putin's overarching aim: reversing the consequences of the Soviet collapse, splitting the transatlantic alliance, and renegotiating the geographic settlement that ended the Cold War." Houthi Attacks and a UAE 'Dilemma' After Houthi militants in Yemen launched another attack near Abu Dhabi on Monday—aimed at a military base hosting US troops—five authors at the Middle East Institute warn that Iran's regional allies (and perhaps Tehran itself) appear emboldened.
The attack follows another this month near Abu Dhabi's airport, and Steven A. Cook writes for Foreign Policy that despite wanting to step back from it, UAE leaders may have trouble disentangling their country from Yemen's war. "Regardless of the proximate cause for the Houthi drone and missile attacks, they pose a significant dilemma for leaders in Abu Dhabi who seem caught between their active—even aggressive—foreign and defense policies of the past decade, and their current efforts to turn inward and focus on domestic development," Cook writes. "Houthi belligerence also raises questions about the faddish idea in Washington that local actors can manage regional deescalation, freeing up the United States to deal with bigger global problems." Already Powerful, the Tech Sector Looks to Grow "Apple and Alphabet are now larger than were US Steel and Standard Oil, the two mighty monopolies of the 1900s, measured by profits relative to domestic GDP," The Economist observed in a recent cover story outlining the US tech sector's "supersized ambitions."
As the magazine outlined it, those include big investments aimed at seizing advantage in the "metaverse" of online interactive games (Microsoft's recent acquisition of game company Activision Blizzard will serve that goal) or at developing the next generation of devices, including autonomous vehicles, that could supplant the smartphone as users' interaction points with much of what tech offers.
Regulators have shown interest in constraining the powerful sector, but The Economist warned against it, as "[t]rustbusters will struggle to predict the technologies of tomorrow. What they can do is block firms from doing deals that give them a monopoly position in new markets today. That is not yet a danger." Tonga's Earthquake, a Peruvian Outcry, and Global Unpredictability Tonga's massive undersea earthquake not only devastated the small island country, it prompted government warnings of tsunamis around the Pacific rim. But not in Peru, Frida Ghitis writes for The World Politics Review. The non-warning was followed by waves that killed two women and seem to have caused an oil spill, as an Italian tanker attempted to deliver Brazilian crude to a facility owned by the Spanish oil company Repsol, Ghitis writes.
Prospective damage to fishing and tourism caused an outcry, which prompted the Peruvian government to declare a state of emergency, allege "ecocide," and threaten action against Repsol (which has said it did not cause the spill). "The massive eruption of an undersea volcano is not a butterfly flapping its wings," Ghitis writes. "But the series of events that followed the Tonga disaster, after its shockwaves traveled halfway across the world, is a reminder of just how unpredictable the course of history can be." |
