HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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January 7, 2022

Fareed: The Virus Has Changed. So Should We.

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 has produced a surge in cases, but real-world experience suggests it's causing milder illness in the vaccinated, Fareed points out in his latest Washington Post column.
 
Now that Covid-19 broadly presents a different set of risks, we need to change our strategy against it, Fareed argues: "We must have different rules across the board for those who are vaccinated. We know from the science and the statistics that they will impose many fewer burdens on the health-care system." Widely available masks and mass testing should also be key tools in the Omicron era, Fareed writes.
 
It's hard to tell if the pandemic has really turned a corner with Omicron, given that so many Americans remain unvaccinated, Fareed writes. "But it does appear that at least for now, for the vaccinated majority, the post-pandemic future has arrived—if we are willing to accept it."
 
Note to readers: Tune into CNN Sunday at 9 p.m. ET to see Fareed's latest special report, "The Fight to Save American Democracy."

What to Say to Russia

With a huge number of Russian troops stationed near Ukraine's border, talks between Moscow and the West are expected to continue next week in Brussels, during a NATO–Russia meeting. Views are mixed as to what the US and its European allies should say. 
 
At the World Politics Review, Dave Keating writes that Europe is still figuring out what to make of Russia's troop buildup, with Eastern and Central European capitals more wary than their Western neighbors. At Strategic Europe, Judy Dempsey sums up the case for a harder line: The West offered weak responses to Russian invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, Dempsey writes. "The United States, the EU, and NATO now say that if Russia invades Ukraine there will be a price to pay. Russia has already invaded Ukraine. And they say that Russia has no veto over which countries can join NATO, which is patently untrue."

The Economist takes a more sanguine view, suggesting extended talks over Ukraine could evolve "into a useful forum" between Russia and the West, if President Vladimir Putin is amenable.

Kazakhstan, Shooting to Kill, and the Social Contract in Resource-Rich Countries

Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has ordered security forces to "kill without warning," amid violent clashes and mass protests over a lifting of caps on since-risen fuel prices, while international observers warn the unrest carries broader import.
 
"One lesson for democracies and autocracies alike is the explosive political risk of rising energy prices—even in a country, like Kazakhstan, with big [oil] reserves," the Financial Times editorial board writes, noting that the protests quickly came to encompass larger issues like "corruption" and "lack of political choice." 
 
The unrest says something about the social contract in resource-rich countries, Nikolas K. Gvosdev writes for The National Interest, as the new fuel policy revealed a sense "that an energy producer like Kazakhstan should be able to guarantee a much higher standard of living for the population—if more of the benefits weren't being squirreled away by the elite. … [T]he events in Kazakhstan are a sobering wake-up call for other governments in Eurasia, notably Azerbaijan and Russia."

'Brazil Turns, Lula Returns'

With observers doubting that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro would accept an election defeat this October, the country's military looms as a key power broker ahead of that vote, Oliver Stuenkel writes for Americas Quarterly. But under the above headline, Vincent Bevins writes for The New York Review of Books that defeat is likely where Bolsonaro is heading: Erstwhile supporters have turned away from him, and leftist former (and formerly imprisoned) president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now an odds-on favorite to retake power.
 
Lula's Worker's Party agenda fits the country's current leftward tilt, Bevins writes; critical to his future will be whether Brazil's business class views him as an easier president to work with—and whether Lula presents himself as a leftist or centrist in a potential campaign.

Watch the State-Level Races

As the US gets ready to vote in 2022's midterm elections, at American Purpose Larry Diamond reminds us that the state-level races—those for governor and state-legislative seats—are the most important to watch, for anyone concerned with a possible constitutional crisis in 2024. 
 
Republicans have performed well in state-level races in recent election cycles, Diamond notes, and if a pro-Trump effort to overturn future presidential-election results is to emerge, it's these state officials who will wrangle over voting and results-certification policies, making governorships and state houses (once again) critical to America's democratic future.