HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

View this email in your browser 

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here.

January 18, 2022

For Russia, Would Another Invasion Be Worth It?

With more than 100,000 of its troops built up near Ukraine, Russia really might invade again, the Financial Times editorial board warns—not that doing so would achieve Moscow's goals. 
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin has argued that Ukraine is part of Russia, culturally and historically, but "[n]ew interference … would entrench Ukrainian anger for generations," defeating Putin's apparent aim of bringing Ukraine into Russia's fold, the FT writes.
 
Drawing similar conclusions about risk and reward, others are not convinced Russia will attack.
 
"Russia's use of military force in the Putin era—while often appearing aggressive and erratic—is actually rather conservative and risk-averse, with a strong cost-benefit analysis taken by the Kremlin in each particular case," Eugene Chausovsky writes for Foreign Policy. Judging by Russia's incursions into Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, Chausovsky writes, Moscow usually strikes when a particular set of conditions is present: "a trigger," for instance a local event that purportedly threatens Russians; "local support" for Russia in the area to be invaded; an "anticipated military reaction" that Russia could overcome easily; "technical feasibility" of invading; and "relatively low anticipated political and economic costs."
 
In Ukraine, "many" of those factors "have shifted" since 2014, Chausovsky writes—suggesting Moscow will conclude that another invasion wouldn't be worth it.

What a Russian Attack Could Look Like

If Russia does attack, what might that look like? The Economist identifies a range of military options, from a full-scale invasion seeking to topple the Kyiv government and occupy the country, to a missile campaign, to seizing more strategic slices of land in Ukraine's east, to cyberattacks. 
 
At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Seth G. Jones goes into greater detail—looking at similar possibilities and the land routes that could accompany them, for instance through Russia-friendly Belarus—while warning that an invasion would put NATO on wider alert, as Russia could broaden the sphere of conflict with provocations against Baltic or Balkan countries.

Is a Bigger Trend Behind Inflation?

In the US, inflation has been blamed on government spending, corporate profits, supply-chain backups, and consumer demand for goods. But in a Financial Times column, Rana Foroohar argues that a much larger trend is at play.
 
"[F]or all sorts of reasons, from US–China decoupling to the shift to a low-carbon economy to the rise of decentralised technologies like 3D printing," Foroohar writes, "we aren't going back to the 1990s, when cheap goods were the zero-inflation offset for the rising cost of housing, as well as education and healthcare."

To Foroohar, a big part of the inflation story involves trade decoupling, increased support for domestic labor, and a turn away from pro-corporate policies of decades past—in other words, "the end of neoliberal globalisation. Its effects on corporations, workers and inflation have only just begun to be felt."

What's Next for Kazakhstan?

"The era of Nursultan Nazarbayev is over in Kazakhstan," Nargis Kassenova writes for Foreign Affairs. The former leader had still pulled the strings in Kazakhstan, having effectively ruled the country since its post-Soviet independence, Kassenova writes—but after the unrest of recent weeks, it appears President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emerged more powerful.

It's not clear what will come next: "Tokayev wants to build a modern welfare state," Kassenova writes, but doubts remain over dependence on Russia, after Russia-aligned security forces stepped in to quell the unrest at Tokayev's invitation.

Lawsuits Challenge Election Conspiracy Theories

Taking journalists and bloggers to court is usually an authoritarian tactic, Jonathan Rauch writes for Persuasion, but a movement is afoot in the US to sue for defamation over conspiratorial 2020-election claims.
 
Citing cases brought by voting-machine company Dominion and by two Georgia election workers, Rauch writes that election conspiracy theorists may have to defend their claims in court—and that such suits could prove useful in stanching the "firehose of falsehoods" spewed by allies of former President Donald Trump about his 2020 loss to President Joe Biden.