Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. January 16, 2022 On GPS, at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET: First, Fareed gives his take on a reversal in global politics revealed by the current wave of inflation.
"For decades, in country after country, economics trumped politics," Fareed says, noting the practice of ceding monetary policy to independent central banks—a reaction to widespread inflation in the 20th century. "But now, from China to Turkey to the United States, politics is trumping economics," Fareed says, pointing to lowered interest rates (in Turkey, especially) and protectionist policies.
"The old obsession with economics over politics was overdone," Fareed says. "It achieved great successes but created other problems, such as wage stagnation. But the current emphasis on politics over economics seems more dangerous. It allows politicians to engage in patronage policies, protectionism, and short-term gimmicks to prevent ordinary people from feeling the pain of a crisis. In the long run, however, one wonders if it is these same ordinary people who will have to pay the price."
Next: What to do about Russia? As more than 100,000 Russian troops remain stationed near Ukraine, Moscow and the West engaged in a series of critical, high-level talks this week—but the two sides are no closer to compromise. Fareed will have an exclusive interview with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov about Moscow's intentions.
After that, Fareed gets the view from the West. He'll talk to two people who have experience dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin: Council on Foreign Relations Distinguished Fellow and former US National Security Council Director for Russia Thomas Graham and current Member of European Parliament and former Polish Defense and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski discuss how the West should respond to Putin's threats.
Finally: the state of American democracy and the weaknesses Covid-19 has exposed. Harvard scholar, author, and Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Danielle Allen—whose new book, "Democracy in the Time of Coronavirus," examines that topic—joins Fareed to discuss. The situation on Ukraine's border remains serious, but Thomas Graham and Rajan Menon write for Politico Magazine that a grand compromise between Russia and the West should be possible.
Their proposal: The US and Western Europe could offer a return to Cold War dialogue forums, a moratorium (but not a permanent ban) on Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO, and an agreement not to station intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.
"Now is the time to think big and imagine a new, more durable order, one that can encompass Russia," Graham and Menon write. "[T]he inescapable reality is that Russia has overcome a prolonged period of weakness and now sees itself as a great power with security interests, which it will and can defend, using force if necessary. … The talks currently underway with Russia offer an opportunity to prove that wise statesmen can create that order without a major war serving as the catalyst." Inflation Wave Will Test Economic Theories Mainstream economic theories aren't always followed these days, as Fareed notes. At Project Syndicate, economist Dani Rodrik writes that the current wave of inflation will see some alternative theories tested, as governments like Turkey's (which has lowered interest rated despite inflation) experiment with unorthodox schools of economic thought.
Some economists advocate experimenting: Isabella Weber, for instance, wrote recently for The Guardian that price controls could help tame inflation in the short term, giving it time to pass. The important thing is to find the right policy for the right setting, Rodrik writes.
"Sometimes, as in Turkey's case, the orthodox economic argument is indeed the correct one," Rodrik writes. "But this does not mean that there are universal rules in economics or that the prevailing view among mainstream economists should determine policy. Otherwise, some of the most important policy innovations in history—think of the New Deal in the US or industrial policy in post-World War II East Asia—would never have occurred. In fact, today's dominant monetary policy framework, inflation targeting, is itself a product of the peculiar political and economic circumstances that prevailed in New Zealand during the 1980s. It sat uncomfortably with the theory of monetary policy of the time." Do Lockdowns Harm Early-Childhood Development? A body of pre-published research hints at neurodevelopmental setbacks for babies born during the pandemic, including in communication and motor skills, Melinda Wenner Moyer details at Nature.
As for potential causes, researchers' attention has turned to factors like reduced play with other children, which could hinder communication and social development, and pre-natal stress experienced by mothers.
"Parents can make headway by playing and talking with their young children regularly, and giving them opportunities to play with others in safe settings," Moyer writes. "Policy changes aimed at supporting families and children could make a difference, too," while some wonder if the body of research isn't slanted toward its conclusion. Can Drone Strikes Be Safer for Civilians? Civilian casualties have generated backlash against US drone strikes, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and recent investigative reporting by The New York Times indicates those strikes have cost more civilian lives than previously known.
It doesn't have to be this way, Paul Lushenko, Sarah Kreps, and Shyam Raman write for Foreign Affairs. Their analysis finds US drone strikes killed fewer civilians during the latter years of the Obama administration, when targeting and certainty standards were tightened. Former President Donald Trump undid the change, but the authors suggest returning to it would save civilian lives without allowing terrorists to gain any notable advantage. |
