HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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January 23, 2022

On Today's Show

On GPS, at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET:

First, Fareed gives his take on Russian President Vladimir Putin's true aims in Ukraine.
 
Recent essays in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy suggest Putin "has stayed in power for over 20 years not by being a reckless gambler but rather by being careful, even rational," Fareed notes. Ukraine joining NATO would be "a step too far" for Russia, Fareed says, and it enjoys leverage as a natural-gas supplier to Europe.
 
"Putin is not engaging in reckless adventurism," Fareed says. "He takes risks, but has calculated the odds carefully. Right now, they're in his favor."
 
Next: With more than 100,000 Russian troops waiting near Ukraine, what happens next? Fareed discusses that and more with a panel of Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass, author and Atlantic Staff Writer Anne Applebaum, and International Rescue Committee President and CEO and former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband—who dissect negotiations between Moscow and the West, whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson can survive "Partygate," and tough choices facing the international community as Afghanistan spirals.
 
After that: What's really causing inflation—and will it continue past the pandemic? Fareed talks with CNN Global Economics Analyst and Financial Times Global Business Columnist Rana Foroohar about big changes driving the global economy into new territory.
 
Finally: Fareed looks at South Korea's surprising anti-feminist movement and how misogyny overlaps with far-right politics around the world.

Want to Understand Inflation? Look at Trucking.

While Rana Foroohar argues macro factors are abetting inflation as globalization winds down, her Financial Times colleague Gillian Tett writes that a micro phenomenon—America's trucking woes—helps explain it.

By one estimate, the US lacks some 80,000 truckers, and the industry is struggling to recruit new ones, Tett writes. Trucking wages can be substantial in theory, but getting a commercial license can be difficult and time consuming, and one trucker observes that the industry lacks "good, union jobs that fairly compensate workers and treat us with the dignity and respect we deserve." Given those factors, pay increases may not be enough. Tett warns the White House and the Fed that "those truckers are a potent sign of how hard it will be to halt inflation with monetary policy alone."

Has Iran's Regime Isolated Itself at Home?

In a Foreign Policy essay, Ray Takeyh argues it has. Working-class Iranians seem to have grown more frustrated with the regime amid sanctions-driven economic problems, Takeyh writes. Meanwhile, former political elites—even conservative ones—have been marginalized, as hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resist nuclear compromise with the West.

Should Biden Go Bolder?

As President Joe Biden faces sagging approval ratings, Emma Ashford writes for Foreign Affairs that his reasonably conceived "foreign policy for the middle class" has yet to be delivered upon.
 
For the sake of reinvigoration, Ashford writes, Biden should recommit to more aggressively altering the Trump-era status quo in US foreign policy, for instance by engaging in Asian trade arrangements (CPTPP or otherwise), pulling US troops out of Middle East conflict zones, and rejoining the Iran nuclear deal. That would get the administration out of its "defensive crouch"—it will be criticized by Republicans regardless of what it does, Ashford writes—and reap the benefits of appearing decisive.

Can Italy Keep Its Recovery Going?

Mario Draghi's stint as Prime Minister of Italy could soon end, the Financial Times editorial board laments, as a parliamentary vote for president looms on Monday. (Draghi himself is a potential candidate, the FT writes, while "another choice could prove so divisive it incapacitates the unity government or brings it down altogether.") That's a shame, in the paper's view, as Draghi's run of technocratic governance has set Italy on the right track economically—a trend Fareed has examined on GPS.
 
Italy has enjoyed stability and impressive economic growth under Draghi, Paola Subacchi writes for Project Syndicate, advising that whether he stays or goes, Italian policymakers will need to spend European Union Covid-19-relief funds wisely and move ahead with needed reforms.

North Korea and the Future of Crypto

Regulators have yet to reach consensus on cryptocurrency, William Pesek writes for Nikkei Asia, and North Korea's apparent penchant for it could tip the scales toward a crackdown. Pyongyang is accused of directing or sponsoring both wide-scale ransomware attacks against companies and hacking campaigns against crypto platforms and wallets themselves, to steal the theoretically untraceable currency. Pesek predicts that as a result, crypto could come to be associated even more closely with international crime and rogue regimes.