Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. January 13, 2022 What to Do About Inflation? Things have gotten more expensive in the US, as a government report this week revealed 7% inflation since last year on consumer prices, the highest rate since 1982. At Bloomberg, John Authers writes that US inflation is widespread—having gone beyond food, energy, and used cars—but might be peaking, and the news this week didn't seem to surprise markets.
Debate continues over what can be done. The Wall Street Journal's editorial board observes that President Joe Biden doesn't seem inclined to drop his support for more spending—though, it should be noted, his domestic agenda for it has already stalled.
More focus is on the Federal Reserve. "At some point, price pressures will become endemic. When they do, the Fed's tune might change in a more radical way than markets expect," Claire Jones writes for the Financial Times' Alphaville page, surveying the risks entailed by tightening up—i.e. by raising interest rates and unwinding the Fed purchases that have injected money into the economy. Asset prices have dropped on previous rounds of Fed tightening, Jones writes, and the landscape is dangerous this time, as "businesses and governments are leveraged to the hilt." Interest rates are far lower than they were the last time America saw inflation of this magnitude, which suggests to Jones that Fed action could "exceed current expectations" if inflation persists.
Writing for the same FT section, Edward Price concurs that "the Fed is in a tight spot." It could make a sharp or gradual turn, Price writes, but the smoothness of the action may determine how we're all affected. The Scandal That Might Stick to Boris Johnson UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized this week for briefly attending a spring-2020 garden party at 10 Downing Street while the rest of Britain was restricted in its socializing. With that development, Johnson's "partygate" controversy—originally sparked by reports of a different party, around Christmas of that year—has taken on new and more-serious life, The Economist writes.
Johnson is unlikely to resign, the magazine concludes, but pressure is mounting. Some fellow Tories want him gone, and the magazine notes elsewhere that Johnson is beginning to look like "an electoral liability. Ministers are staying away from Parliament, or keeping silent. ... Would-be candidates for the top job are plotting and posturing. Since they include Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, the chaos will consume the great offices of state."
In the past, Johnson's habit of breaking small rules has enhanced his appeal among some voters, the magazine writes—but that may no longer be the case, as hard times could lie ahead thanks to inflation, a struggling health system, and a looming payroll-tax increase to help support it. "It is not in Number 10's garden, but in supermarkets, petrol forecourts and doctors' waiting-rooms that Mr Johnson's fate will be decided," the magazine writes. "The past week has been the most miserable of his career. The coming year will be worse." What Can the West Offer Russia? And What Should It Demand? "Not since the Balkan wars of the 1990s has Europe seen a week of such crucial security summitry," The Economist writes of this week's meetings between the US, NATO, and Russia, as a huge number of Russian troops remain positioned near Ukraine, while Moscow "has shown no sign of stepping back."
Western negotiators are in for a "rough ride," former US Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried writes for Just Security. It's hard to know if Russia's demands—which include a halt to NATO expansion, no US nuclear weapons stationed abroad, and limits to US and NATO troop placements—are simply meant to "soften up" the West and accustom it to transgressions short of a full-scale effort to conquer Ukraine, Fried warns.
How should the US and Western Europe respond? At the Brussels-based Egmont Institute, Sven Biscop argues that one item on Russian President Vladimir Putin's wish list—that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO—seems affordable, as NATO doesn't appear willing to defend Ukraine if it's attacked, anyway, which is "exactly what the Alliance is about." That said, Biscop warns that Russia sees global politics through an anachronistic lens of great-power competition, "Putin's logic is alien" to the West, and the US and Europe don't have to accept it. Vaccine Hesitancy and the Djokovic Saga Global tennis star Novak Djokovic's Australian Open visa limbo has been cited as an object of Australia's domestic politics; a point of resonance after the country's long, stringent, national Covid-19 lockdown; and a reflection of Australia's complex immigration policies.
At The New Yorker, Gerald Marzorati writes that Djokovic's refusal to be vaccinated also points to the vibrance of a Serbian "wellness" scene; the intricacies of alternative-health beliefs; and personal responsibility, as Djokovic was seen attending events maskless around the time of a positive Covid-19 test (he has said he didn't learn of the positive result until afterward). |
