HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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February 23, 2022

Back to the Cold War?

"Should he invade, it will be a historic error," former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright writes in a New York Times opinion essay.
 
President Joe Biden has suggested an "invasion" is already beginning, but semantics aside, Albright echoes a broad point others have argued: that Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to revive Russia's imperial or Soviet past, adding that Moscow does not "have a right to chop the globe into spheres of influence as colonial empires did centuries ago."
 
At the World Politics Review, Erica Gaston argues we've already moved backward: "There is no more use in dancing around reality using terms like 'strategic competition' or 'great power tensions' to describe relations between the West and Russia. We are in a new Cold War."
 
Though some hear in Putin's complaints a valid critique of NATO's eastward expansion in the 1990s and 2000s, others worry he's laying waste to the new world order that followed the fall of Soviet communism.
 
"Russia is trying to decide whether it is a nation-state or an aspiring empire, and until this fundamental question is resolved, conflicts like the one over Ukraine will continue in various forms," former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt warns at Project Syndicate.

Will Sanctions Work?

The US, UK, and European Union have responded to Putin's recognition of eastern Ukrainian separatist-held enclaves, and his decision to order troops there, by unfurling a package of sanctions. Observers have wondered in recent weeks if such measures would be enough to sway decisions in Moscow.
 
"To some … the transatlantic response so far has been sure-footed, not least in the degree of diplomatic co-ordination and the use of intelligence to expose and disrupt Russia's military plans," The Economist writes. "The question is whether the sanctions are commensurate with Russia's attack on the sovereignty of Ukraine, and whether they can deter Mr Putin from sending the 190,000-odd troops he has amassed on Ukraine's borders to seize more territory."
 
That the West is imposing sanctions now reflects that they didn't work last time, when they were intended to deter Putin's incursions into Ukraine in 2014, Alan Beattie writes for the Financial Times. It's not certain if or how the West will ratchet them up if Putin extends his current advance, Ralf Neukirch writes for Der Spiegel, as it's "been clear for some time now that it won't be easy to find a common position" on sanctions, particularly in Europe.
 
The big news, most seem to agree, is that Germany has paused the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that connects it to Russian energy supplies. (At the FT, Beattie calls it a signal that "Berlin knows what is required.")
 
If the West's deterrence strategy fails, Alyona Getmanchuk writes for the FT, the lesson will be clear: Putin's "playbook" from 2014 still works and will continue to in the future.

How a War Could Spread

In Ukraine, The Economist has written, the scope of conflict could depend on how far Russia goes in supporting separatist enclaves, as the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regimes claim territory they do not control.

At Foreign Policy, Jerad I. Harper warns that a larger war could engulf neighboring countries, if Russia seeks to capture larger swaths of Ukraine. Were Ukrainian forces to mount an insurgency, Harper suggests, NATO neighbors would likely offer them safe haven—giving Moscow an incentive to attack (parts of) other countries beyond Ukraine.

Taliban Rule Still Carries Open Questions

As the Taliban continue their transition from insurgency to governing, Jon Lee Anderson writes for The New Yorker that the group has few answers regarding inclusivity for women and ethnic minorities and faces both severe international sanctions and attacks claimed by ISIS' Afghanistan-based affiliate.
 
Anderson sets the scene in the capital: "To most of the Taliban, Kabul is terra incognita—a cosmopolitan enclave in an otherwise rural, and deeply traditional, country. To the city's residents, the Taliban are interlopers, as out of place as Texas militiamen on the Upper West Side. … For the most part, the civilians pretended the Talibs weren't there." At the same time, bombs claimed by ISIS-K have exploded, and concerns have been voiced that women's freedoms won't be upheld.