Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. February 18, 2022 Fareed: America Is Uniting Its Adversaries The Ukraine crisis "has highlighted a larger strategic failure" by the US, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column—"one that extends beyond this administration. One of the central rules of strategy is to divide your adversaries. But, increasingly, U.S. foreign policy is doing the opposite."
Russia and China are only getting closer, Fareed writes, as seen in the lengthy joint statement issued this month following a meeting in Beijing by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. China didn't support Russia in 2014 when the latter annexed Crimea, but the two powers appear more aligned today. China supported America's sanctions campaigns against Libya, Iran, and North Korea in the past, Fareed notes; now, by contrast, it looms as a potential economic fallback for Russia, if the US were to pursue financial reprisals over Ukraine.
"At the start of the Cold War, when ideology also dominated over strategy, Washington lumped all communist states together," Fareed writes. "It took the United States 25 years (and the Vietnam War) to learn that we should treat Moscow and Beijing differently. At the start of the war on terrorism, the George W. Bush administration announced that Iraq, Iran and North Korea formed an 'axis of evil,' a mistake for which we are still paying the price. Let's hope that this time we do not have to endure a long and costly misadventure before we finally recognize that we should not be helping to unite our foes." Putin May Not Need to Invade As the US government warns Russia could engineer a false pretext for invading Ukraine again, attention has turned to the Donbas region in Ukraine's east, where shelling was reported yesterday and an explosion today. At Foreign Policy, Eugene Chausovsky writes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not need to launch a full-scale invasion to achieve some of his suspected goals—and that the current crisis won't simply end if he doesn't.
(A pretext-driven entry into the separatist-held regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, accompanied by recognition of them as separate from Ukraine, could suffice, Chausovsky suggests.)
As for the wisdom of Putin's conduct, The Economist sees it as counterproductive: By effectively threatening an invasion Putin has "galvanized his opponents," spurred NATO to unity and purpose, prompted Western diplomatic support for previously "neglected" Ukraine, and raised the possibility of sanctions that could damage Russia's economy, the magazine writes. As inflation in the US, UK, and Europe hits recent-historical highs, the Financial Times editorial board writes that central banks face a dilemma. Conventional economic theory dictates that they can keep interest rates low and spur growth, or tighten up and fight inflation, but not both—while a "growing contingent of economists" disputes this logic, calling for loose monetary policy to help workers and preserve output gains.
"These are the most difficult monetary policy decisions central bankers have faced since the early 1980s," the paper concludes. The Pandemic Moves Into Yet Another Phase The pandemic has moved into an odd limbo for the immunocompromised, The Atlantic's Ed Yong writes, as much of society mulls whether and how to move on. For most people, The New York Times' Spencer Bokat-Lindell observes in rounding up opinions and arguments, it's not clear what that will look like.
A sense of transition has seemed to permeate. From conservative approval of commentator Bari Weiss' proclamation that she's "done with Covid" to some Democratic governors rolling back mask mandates, pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson writes in her Codebook newsletter that the zeitgeist appears to be shifting.
"(T)he turn away from COVID restrictions seems less about them having become deeply unpopular overnight," Anderson writes, "but rather that public opinion has soured on our ability to win the fight against COVID at all."
Practically, the pandemic's next phase means different things to different observers. To some, as always, it's about dropping masks; to others, like epidemiologist and longtime AIDS activist Gregg Gonsalves, it's about not "leav(ing) people behind" to face enduring risk in particular demographic communities. At The Atlantic, Katherine J. Wu suggests it's about moving away from imperatives for individualized vigilance and toward more holistic, society-wide risk reduction via things like ventilation and air filtration in buildings, disease surveillance, and paid sick leave.
Some experts are now "wary of a mandate-forward approach," Wu observes, writing: "'We have to be sparing with what we're asking people to do,' (Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Jennifer) Nuzzo said, both to keep people invested and to preserve their stamina for the next infectious crisis. (Vaccine-policy expert Jason) Schwartz, of Yale, feels similarly. Most mandates are a lever to be pulled 'in case of emergency' and, generally speaking, are far too great a sledgehammer to wield at other times." |
