Should We Have Seen This Coming?
Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
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February 22, 2022 Should We Have Seen This Coming? Russian President Vladimir Putin has brought Europe "to the brink of war," as a Financial Times column by Gideon Rachman declares. Sizing Up the Military Possibilities If all-out war does arrive, Michael Kofman and Jeffrey Edmonds write for Foreign Affairs, Russia would likely overwhelm Ukraine's defenses. In addition to a big edge in numbers, they observe, "Russia has far more—and far better—artillery, reconnaissance, and logistical capabilities than Ukraine does. The Russian military would have the advantage along every axis of attack." Eyes on the Donbas Last week, before Putin's announcement, The Economist wrote that an incursion into the Donbas—the eastern Ukrainian region that's home to the two Russian-backed, separatist-held enclaves Putin recognized as independent and to which he ordered Russian troops—could either spark a wider war or allow Putin to "declare victory and walk away." A New Way of Responding to 'Hybrid' Warfare Known as the world leader in "hybrid" or "gray-zone" warfare, in 2014 Moscow accompanied its invasion of Ukraine (by non-uniformed forces) with revisionist claims, accusations of danger to Russian speakers, and a public-messaging effort that clouded discussion. Citing frustrations with the Obama administration's response then, Joshua Yaffa and Adam Entous write for The New Yorker that US President Joe Biden's team has arrived at a new counter-strategy: shouting loudly about purported Russian plans at every step. ISIS Lurks in Lebanon? At its height, ISIS was active—and perpetrated violence—in Lebanon. At Foreign Policy, Anchal Vohra writes that the with the collapse of that country's economy, it is suspected that ISIS is once again drawing recruits (to travel and fight outside the country) from among poor Lebanese Sunni men, offering promises of salaries. FAREED'S GLOBAL BRIEFING You are receiving this newsletter because you're subscribed to Fareed's Global Briefing.
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