HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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February 2, 2022

The Calm in Kyiv

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently fighting a confusing battle," Christian Esch wrote for Der Spiegel over the weekend, surveying Kyiv's apparent calm amid Russia's troop buildup and the high tension unfolding between Moscow and the West.
 
"The actual enemy is in the east, where Russia has amassed tanks, heavy artillery and troops. But the noise of war seems to be coming from the West," as Esch put it. "The warnings there of a Russian attack on Ukraine are so frequent and loud that Zelensky and his team currently don't know what to fear more: the Russian troops or those who are warning about them. The enemy or the friend? The war that could break out, or the war of nerves that has long since begun and is already doing damage?"
 
The West may be alarmed, but as the Global Briefing has noted, Ukraine's leadership hasn't seemed to be, judging by Zelensky's public statements to the effect of, calm down.

While life proceeds undisturbed in Ukraine's western capital, Kyiv, observers note to Esch that things are tenser in the country's east, and some warn that Zelensky's air of calm is ill-advised. Others, meanwhile, are convinced Western alarm is unfounded and unhelpful: One Ukrainian presidential adviser warns Esch of "propaganda risk" to Ukraine's economy and suggests the military dangers aren't so great "that you have to keep telling people about them."

Is Mud a False Hope?

As for the specifics of those military risks, Amy Mackinnon writes for Foreign Policy that spring mud—thought to make a putative Russian re-invasion more difficult and to give the standoff an end point of sorts, once the ground thaws in eastern Ukraine—likely wouldn't, in itself, prevent Russia's mechanized military from advancing. 

Boris Johnson in 'Partygate' Limbo

Will Conservative MPs signal a lack of confidence in Prime Minister Boris Johnson and prompt a new leadership election, now that a damning government report has heaped on more "Partygate" criticism?

It's not clear, Katy Balls writes for The Spectator—but if they do, the timing could be unpredictable.
 
Johnson's "supporters remain confident that the number of [Tory-MP no-confidence] letters is some way off the 54 required for a confidence vote" on Johnson as Prime Minister, Balls writes. "Yet the drip, drip nature of the party leaks ... and concerns over Johnson's performance means that 54 letters could be reached at a rather random point. Given there is no single person leading efforts to oust Johnson, the timing of a confidence vote will come as more of a surprise than it did under [former Prime Minister] Theresa May when Brexiteers largely coordinated their letters."
 
"A Tory leadership contest is coming," Andrew Marr writes for The New Statesman, poring over Conservatives' alternatives to Johnson. "[B]ut there are more twisting, choked, switchback roads to come before we get there." Johnson can be expected to "fight, fight and fight again," Marr writes. "This would not be a neat, quick or surgical removal of a prime minister."

Xi's Kitchen-Sink Approach to the Middle East

"Chinese policy toward the Middle East has dramatically changed under Chinese President Xi Jinping," Anchal Vohra writes for Foreign Policy, noting Beijing's offers of diplomatic, military, and economic support and its willingness to deal simultaneously with rivals. (For instance, Vohra writes, China has concluded an investment-and-security agreement with Iran while also helping Saudi Arabia build ballistic missiles.)

Beijing's aim, Vohra posits, is to "financially integrate the region so U.S. sanctions can no longer halt oil supplies" to China—and to tout China's political model by demonstrating that economic development is more salable than democracy. Whether Beijing can stay neutral on regional rivalries, Vohra writes, is an open question.

Detecting Covid-19's Next Evolution

The Omicron wave has abated in some places, allowing hints of semi-normalcy to reemerge, but big-picture pandemic concerns linger. For instance, strapped hospitals would rather not face more overwhelming surges of patients, Ed Yong writes for The Atlantic.
 
Detecting new Covid-19 variants—and doing so early—looms as a particularly important task. Genomic sequencing of individual Covid-19 swab tests is insufficient, former US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority Director Rick Bright writes in a New York Times opinion essay. Health authorities and researchers should focus on waste-water (and air) testing that can shed light on Covid-19 at the community level, Bright advises: As "the quickest way to detect variants, it can help leaders prepare for and potentially prevent the next coronavirus surge, and hopefully, the next pandemic."