HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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February 16, 2022

The Problem With the 'Finnish Model'

The Russia–Ukraine crisis continues this week through mixed developments, as Ukraine and NATO say they've discerned no evidence of a Kremlin-advertised troop pullback and as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earns praise for his trip to Moscow.
 
Russian forces remain menacingly positioned, it would seem, as The Economist helpfully detailed last week via open-source intelligence.
 
As the Global Briefing has noted, Western analysts have floated various diplomatic solutions—including that Ukraine could commit to non-aligned status, to assuage Russian fears and make clear that it won't join NATO anytime soon. At Foreign Policy, Caroline de Gruyter levels a powerful critique of this "Finnish model," so called after Finland's Cold War neutrality: that Russian President Vladimir Putin would never accept it.
 
Putin already knows Ukraine isn't about to join NATO, de Gruyter argues, but that's not the point. Finland was a different case—never part of the USSR, lacking territorial disputes with Russia after 1947, and neutral according to treaties. Russia viewed Finland, and Finland viewed itself, as a sovereign country. To de Gruyter, that's exactly what Putin won't abide in Ukraine.
 
De Gruyter offers a bit of history: According to the accounts of former Swedish ambassadors in Moscow, de Gruyter writes, post-Cold War Russian reformers under then-President Boris Yeltsin accepted that post-Soviet states would be independent. "When it came to Ukraine," however, they "were outright nostalgic," bemoaning the separation and pointing to deep national links. "They would have never spoken about Finland like this."
 
Nor will Putin let go of Russia's western neighbor, de Gruyter argues, echoing what former US Ambassador to Kyiv William Taylor recently told The Economist: "For as long as he's alive he will try and try to dominate Ukraine."

The Ukraine Crisis: Still Good for China

It's been argued before that the Ukraine standoff could be great news for China. At Nikkei Asia, Minxin Pei elaborates further that, from China's perspective, the Ukraine crisis showcases NATO uncertainty, diverts US attention from Asia, has driven Moscow and Beijing closer, and could inform China's leaders as to how the West might respond to any developments vis-à-vis Taiwan.
 
"As China's leaders watch events unfold in Ukraine, they will understandably try to copy some of Putin's tactics, identify critical weaknesses in the response of the U.S. and its allies, and then try to avoid some of Putin's mistakes," Pei predicts.

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Do the Truckers Have a Point?

Canada's border-blocking trucker protests are winding down, but demonstrations continue in Ottawa. Conservative commentator Rich Lowry writes for Politico Magazine that we should heed their anger.
 
It unfolded in response to a new Canadian mandate that truckers must be vaccinated or undergo a two-week quarantine to reenter the country after cross-border forays. Enacted Jan. 15, the policy didn't seem to respond to any practical Covid-19 developments, Lowry argues, suggesting the truckers have given voice to an underrepresented movement of those simply "done with" pandemic restrictions.
 
Then again, others, like The Guardian's George Monbiot, see the truckers as part of a larger, right-wing, personal-"sovereignty" movement unfolding in rich countries as a backlash to economic and social trends.

A Call for Post-Pandemic Debt Relief

As Ruchir Sharma and Martin Wolf both wrote in recent Financial Times columns, public debt now hangs over the global economy, threatening to slow growth. Having borrowed heavily to fund Covid-19-relief, low-income and emerging economies are now stuck with a heavy debt load that seems riskier as interest rates figure to rise. The paper's editorial board agrees, calling on rich countries to gather and collaborate on debt restructuring for the rest of the world.

'Iran's Hollow Victory'

Iran's lofty goals—to spread revolutionary ideology, become the leading power representing Shi'a Muslims, and drive US influence from the Middle East—certainly have not been achieved, Karim Sadjadpour writes in Foreign Affairs. But the regime hasn't entirely failed at them, either, which means Tehran will likely stay its current course, including past the reign of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Sadjadpour predicts
 
"Like a skyscraper with a rotting foundation, therefore, the Islamic Republic could continue to cast a shadow over parts of the Middle East, although precariously, for the foreseeable future," Sadjadpour writes. "Or the structure could come crashing down. … Ultimately, the Islamic Republic's grand strategy will be defeated not by the United States or Israel but by the people of Iran, who have paid the highest price for it."