In US-China relations, actions are more important than often impenetrable words.
The world's most critical diplomatic relationship has long been choked by linguistic fog. Official statements bristle with jargon defining the choreography of how Beijing and Washington deal with one another. To have any idea what's going on, you need to brush up on the One China policy, the Three Joint Communiques, the Six Assurances and the Nine-dash line. So it's not surprising that there wasn't much clarity coming out of President Joe Biden's call with President Xi Jinping on Friday.
The US side noted that Biden was "direct" in laying out for China the consequences of supplying material support to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Hint, hint: Chinese firms would face sanctions. As for whether the President made any progress on that issue, officials repeatedly directed reporters to China's comments. Thanks for nothing, since the statements from Beijing were characteristically opaque.
But the official Chinese readout of the call actually showed that what China cares about most is not Ukraine but Taiwan. Xi spoke at length about the issue and warned that some in the US were sending "very dangerous" signals to the democratic island -- an apparent reference to hawkish lawmakers who are demanding more overt US assurances that it would defend Taiwan.
At first glance, the Chinese readout is packed with platitudes about the importance of peace and stability. But optimists in the US government might have been encouraged by Xi's statement that he didn't want the situation in Ukraine "to come to this." A mild rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin and an implicit denial that the attack on Ukraine was cooked up during the Russian leader's Olympic visit to Beijing perhaps? You could read it that way. But over the weekend, Beijing's rhetoric was more critical of the West. Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that China wouldn't be lectured by anyone about what to do -- in signs of irritation about calls for it to be "on the right side of history."
Still, for the US, the key issue is whether China honors what Washington says are Russia's requests for military and economic assistance to ease the impact of the Western effort to isolate Moscow and to drain its military of support. The smart money is on China doing what it always does -- ruthlessly pursing its own interests. So far, Xi's government has walked a fine line -- effectively blaming the West for the war but stopping short of giving Putin all the help he wants. That looks set to carry on.
For the US, the call was the first test in what will now become a long-term goal of US foreign policy -- ensuring that the new "no limits" friendship inaugurated by Xi and Putin last month never reaches full fruition.