By Nate Cohn

Chief political analyst

Good morning. Campaign polls show how scandal has hurt Herschel Walker's chances of winning Georgia's Senate race.

A notable shift

In today's highly polarized political climate, it takes a lot for a scandal to make a big difference in a high-stakes general election.

But if the latest polls are any indication, then recent allegations against Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia, might be big enough not only to decide his race but also control of the Senate.

Walker has slipped behind his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock, by an average of about 2.5 percentage points across all four polls taken since Oct. 3, when an ex-girlfriend accused Walker of paying for an abortion she had in 2009. Walker has made opposition to abortion a cornerstone of his campaign and has denied the woman's account.

In polls, just 2.5 points is not a huge shift. Maybe as few as one in 25 of Walker's former supporters have flipped to Warnock or drifted into the undecided column; Georgia is a closely divided state. And it's possible this period represents Walker's low-water mark. While the accusations against him are still fresh, some Republicans may be reluctant to show support for him in responding to pollsters but may ultimately vote for him if the heat of the issue fades for them over the coming weeks.

As recently as a few weeks ago, Georgia was arguably the closest Senate race in the country. Now, every new poll shows Warnock leading, by an average of over three percentage points. (He had already been ahead by about a half point in polls taken by those same four pollsters before the abortion revelations.) And unlike in many other states, the polls have a relatively good track record in Georgia.

Not only does this edge make Warnock a much clearer favorite than a month ago, it's a wide enough lead to give him a chance of winning the 50 percent of the vote necessary to win outright and avoid a December runoff. (Georgia election law requires a runoff if no candidate secures a majority of ballots.)

And even if Walker does force a runoff, it would pose an additional challenge to the Republicans: Will reluctant Walker voters show up for him in that election? The Warnock vote will be there.

The Senate picture

Walker's struggles add to Republicans' challenges in trying to capture Senate control. Weak nominees have cost the Republicans a serious chance in New Hampshire, forced the party to spend millions in what ought to have been the safely Republican state of Ohio and endangered the party's chances in Arizona and even Pennsylvania. The unpopularity of the television celebrity Dr. Oz may be just enough to keep the Republicans from winning an eminently winnable race in the Keystone State.

Despite those misfires, the Republicans still have a credible path to control of the Senate. They probably need to win just two of three key tossup states: Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. That task starts looking a lot more challenging if Walker fumbles in Georgia.

The governor's race

The latest polling does offer a good sign for Georgia Republicans: the governor's race. While many expected the Georgia governor's race to be one of the marquee contests of the cycle, virtually every poll has shown Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, leading the Democrat Stacey Abrams. On average, Kemp leads Abrams by about five percentage points — an edge he has held all year.

Kemp's lead is not necessarily a reflection on Abrams but probably reflects his strengths. He's a relatively traditional, if conservative, Republican who emphasizes his economic stewardship and who certified President Biden's victory in the 2020 election over Donald Trump's very public objections. He is also running as an incumbent, which tends to confer an advantage.

And while demographic changes have helped make Georgia competitive, it is not a state where Democrats can win simply by mobilizing a new coalition of progressive voters — at least not yet. Biden won by persuading many traditionally Republican, affluent suburban voters, who just couldn't stomach Trump. They can stomach Kemp.

If the polls are right, they might not be able to stomach Walker.

Nate Cohn makes sense of the latest political data twice a week in his newsletter, The Tilt.

More politics news

• Candidates clashed on abortion in debates for Michigan's governor and Wisconsin's senator last night.
• After years of antagonism, Senator Mike Lee asked Mitt Romney, a fellow Utah Republican, for an endorsement in his close race against an independent.

• A majority of Republicans in midterm races have cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Many are favored to win.

THE LATEST NEWS

• The Jan. 6 committee voted to subpoena Trump's testimony. He will probably defy it.
• The committee played video from the Capitol attack that showed Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders asking for National Guard troops to protect lawmakers.
• Days before the 2020 election, Trump's allies wanted him to declare victory on election night no matter the results. Here are other takeaways.
• The Supreme Court rejected Trump's request to intervene in the case over government documents seized from Mar-a-Lago.
• Trump's lawyers created a new company — the Trump Organization II — in a possible attempt to evade a New York fraud lawsuit.

• Inflation rose quickly again last month. Grocery bills are up, with increases in the costs of vegetables, beverages and baked goods.
• The new data means that the Federal Reserve will probably announce another big rate increase next month, The Times's Jeanna Smialek explains.
• Because of inflation, Social Security benefits will rise next year. The typical retiree will get an extra $140 per month.

• A teenage gunman killed five people in a neighborhood in Raleigh, N.C. The police said he was in custody.
• The gunman in the 2018 Parkland, Fla., school massacre was spared the death penalty. Jurors recommended a life sentence.
• Two police officers were killed in a shooting in Connecticut. Investigators say the gunman may have made a false 911 call to lure them there.

• Two 16-year-old girls, who were killed by Iranian security services, have become the new faces of protests against the Islamic Republic's rule.
• The Biden administration is trying to limit China's tech ambitions by restricting access to chips needed for supercomputing.
• The F.D.A. declared a nationwide shortage of Adderall, an A.D.H.D. medication.
• The F.B.I. spied on Aretha Franklin for years in the 1960s and '70s.

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SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

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Commanders edge Bears in slugfest: Another Thursday, another ugly N.F.L. game. Washington beat Chicago, 12-7, thanks to a last-second goal-line stop, sending both teams to 2-4 on the year.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A scream queen's last stab

Jamie Lee Curtis never meant to be the face of horror — she says she hates to be scared. But for the past 44 years, she has been linked inextricably with the "Halloween" movie franchise, where she has battled the hulking killer, Michael Myers, across a half-dozen films.

Curtis reprises her role in "Halloween Ends," in theaters today. As the title suggests, she insists this will be her last appearance. "They can go off and make however many 'Halloween' movies they want to make now and create a whole new narrative," Curtis told The Times. She probably won't be watching: "I like things nice and fragrant and quiet."

For more: Curtis bakes lemon cake, frets about her dog Runi and encourages a reporter to get married in this profile of her.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

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Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. Colby College will give an award today to two Associated Press journalists whose work has appeared in this newsletter for their reporting from Ukraine.

Here's today's front page.

"The Daily" is about facing fears. "The Ezra Klein Show" features Rachel Maddow. "Hard Fork" is about Meta's painful metaverse pivot.

Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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