The Morning: The power of history

Morocco is the first African team to make it to the World Cup semifinals.

Good morning. Morocco could end European and South American dominance over the World Cup.

Morocco's players celebrating their victory over Spain.Martin Meissner/Associated Press

Global dominance

If you watched all of the 21 previous men's World Cups, you would see winners and runners-up from only two continents: Europe and South America.

This year's World Cup could be different now that Morocco has qualified for the semifinals, making it the first African country to get this far in the soccer tournament.

Morocco will play France, the reigning champion, tomorrow. (The other semifinal match, today, is another European and South American affair: Croatia versus Argentina.) If Morocco beats France, it will be the first country outside of Europe and South America to make it to the final.

Today's newsletter will look at why two continents have dominated the world's most popular sport for so long.

Self-fulfilling prophecy

History is reflected in today's World Cup. The tournament was a European invention, first held in 1930 by soccer's global governing body, FIFA, after disagreements with the Olympics' handling of the sport. European powers also spread the game more widely in places they had colonized, and it quickly took off in South America. The first World Cup was even hosted by a South American country, Uruguay.

That history gave Europe and South America a head start, which over time turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. European and South American countries had historical roots in the World Cup and performed better in the tournament, so organizers made room for more teams from those continents. But because Europe and South America got more slots, other continents had fewer chances to break out.

Consider the World Cup slots set aside for Europe and Africa: Each continent has nearly the same number of teams. But Europe got 13 qualifying slots for the 2022 World Cup, while Africa got just five.

Money also plays a role. Based in some of the richest countries in the world, European leagues, teams and governments can spend more on developing better soccer players and programs. The world's best players go to Europe to play in its highly lucrative professional leagues, widely seen as the major leagues of men's soccer. "Europe is the bank of football," said my colleague Rory Smith, who is in Qatar covering the World Cup.

Because of its historical success in soccer, South America also has more infrastructure than other continents to develop players and host top-notch, competitive leagues. It's another way that the self-fulling prophecy has played out.

Public interest matters, too. The U.S. is a very wealthy country, but it has historically done poorly at the World Cup. That trend is partly explained by American apathy toward the sport; a star athlete in the U.S. is more likely to follow the culture, fame and money to, say, American football instead of soccer.

All of these factors culminate in soccer's social networks — the conferences, leagues, teams, training grounds and informal gatherings in which players and coaches learn to perform at their best. Europe and, to a lesser extent, South America are at the center of these networks. These networks then perpetuate European and South American dominance.

Notably, Morocco is closely tied to the European network: It neighbors Spain, and many of its players were born in Europe and play in its professional leagues. "They all have access to European ideas about soccer's best practices," Rory said.

Sofiane Boufal of Morocco during the match against Spain.Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

Changing times

Is Europe's and South America's grip over soccer easing? Morocco's success is one sign that it may be. And so is Qatar's hosting of the current World Cup, far from the European and South American centers of power.

The next World Cup could shake up the game further. Its initial rounds will include 48 teams, up from 32, allowing for more geographic diversity in who qualifies. (And a huge shift from the just 13 teams that participated in the first World Cup, in 1930.)

Still, there are also signs that little has changed. The other three teams remaining in this year's World Cup are from Europe or South America. If anything, Europe has become more dominant, even over South America, in recent years: European teams have won the previous four World Cups, dating to 2006.

So it's too early to know if Morocco's success is a sign of a bigger shift for African teams. "It's hard to say whether this is the start of something, because we have not seen it before," said my colleague Tariq Panja, who is also in Qatar covering the World Cup. "It has to happen again to make it a trend."

World Cup news

  • Argentina plays Croatia at 2 p.m. Eastern today. France and Morocco face each other tomorrow. Here's the World Cup bracket.
  • Croatia refuses to lose. It needs one more win to reach a second straight World Cup final.
  • In his home country of Argentina, Lionel Messi is "all the superheroes in one."
  • Yerba mate, an often bitter herbal tea brewed hot or cold, is powering Argentina's players — 1,100 pounds of it.

THE LATEST NEWS

Business
  • The Wall Street Journal named Emma Tucker, a longtime editor for Rupert Murdoch-owned newspapers in Britain, as its top editor.
Politics
A memorial in Washington for victims of Covid.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times
  • A bipartisan bill to create an independent panel to investigate the U.S. government's Covid response appears to be stalled.
  • Lauren Boebert, a far-right representative from Colorado, won re-election by about 500 votes after an automatic recount.
  • The Supreme Court declined to block California's ban on flavored tobacco, clearing the way for the measure to take effect next week.
  • Conservative efforts to ban books in schools, often those about race and gender, are becoming more organized, effective and well-funded.
International
Portraits of two protesters executed by Iran at a demonstration in Berlin.Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Other Big Stories
Opinions

After years of heartbreaking failure, the gun-safety movement is finally starting to rack up wins, Dave Cullen argues.

Israel is about to have an extreme right-wing government. Palestinians will pay the price, Diana Buttu writes.

Discover all of The Times — news and analysis, plus recipes, games, product reviews and personalized sports journalism — with the New York Times All Access subscription. Experience it all at this special rate.

MORNING READS

Jennifer Coolidge in the Season 2 finale of "The White Lotus."Fabio Lovino/HBO

"The White Lotus": Jennifer Coolidge and Mike White, the show's creator, discuss the season finale's "derpy" death.

Local celebrity: P-22, a famous mountain lion living in Los Angeles, was captured.

Metropolitan diary: A riverside wedding proposal that wasn't.

A Times classic: Love as an octogenarian.

Advice from Wirecutter: How to decorate your Christmas tree.

Lives Lived: Angelo Badalamenti composed the hypnotic theme to "Twin Peaks," David Lynch's 1990s TV drama, and the music for five Lynch films. Badalamenti died at 85.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Playoff picture: The Patriots beat the Cardinals 27-13 last night. The Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray exited early in the game with a knee injury.

Mike Leach: The 61-year-old Mississippi State football coach is in critical condition after being taken to a hospital on Sunday for a "personal health issue," according to the school.

Assault charges: Chris Beard, Texas men's basketball coach, was arrested yesterday. The University of Texas suspended him without pay.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Kim Kardashian next to the coffin of Nedjemankh at the 2018 Met Gala.Landon Nordeman for The New York Times

A new era for American museums

For more than a century, American museum curators chased artifacts around the world as though they were Indiana Jones. One Metropolitan Museum of Art curator recalled spiriting a Romanesque relief from a church out of Italy with the help of a dealer who would stash objects under a mattress in his station wagon.

Now that era of treasure hunting may be ending. Museums in the U.S. are returning their ill-gotten artifacts, often after prodding by law enforcement and the countries of origin. The Denver Art Museum recently shipped four antiquities back to Cambodia, and the Met returned a gold-plated coffin to Egypt after a photo of it alongside Kim Kardashian revealed that it had been looted.

Some officials say it's unfair to recast formerly accepted practices as villainous. Elizabeth Marlowe, director of the museum studies program at Colgate University, said she had sympathy for curators who were "trained under different ethical norms." That said, she added: "It's time to step up, gentlemen. It's a different landscape."

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
David Malosh for The New York Times

These simple pork chops are draped in ginger butter and a sticky-sweet whiskey sauce.

Wirecutter Gift Guide
What to Read

These are the best true crime books of the year.

Late Night

The hosts weren't amused by Marjorie Taylor Greene's joke about Jan. 6.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday's Spelling Bee was lightweight. Here is today's puzzle.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Last Greek letter (five letters).

And here's today's Wordle.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German

P.S. Dean Baquet, The Times's former executive editor, appeared on the pop star Dua Lipa's podcast.

"The Daily" is about a plot to overthrow the German government.

Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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