HOT AIR BALLOON FLIGHT

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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December 17, 2021

Fareed: Biden's Unpopularity Is Puzzling

President Joe Biden's policies have generally been popular, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. And yet, Biden himself is poised to end his first year as President with lower approval ratings (at this point in a term) than any other since relevant surveys began decades ago—except for his predecessor, former President Donald Trump.
 
Why the disconnect? For one, Fareed notes, Biden doesn't fit the usual mold of successful Democratic presidents, who are typically either "charismatic outsiders who energize the country ... or they are southerners who manage to bridge the divide between North and South (and all that represents)." Biden is neither.

As The New York Times' Nate Cohn points out, popular policies don't always make popular presidents, as voter affinity often seems to be driven by calm and prosperity during a president's term. "Presidents often get rewarded for being around in good times, whether they caused them or not," Fareed writes. "In Joe Biden's case, he has mostly handled his job with intelligence and decency. But he is paying the price for the complicated times that we are living through."

The Omicron Wave: Here We Go Again

That was fast: Scientists are still assessing the dangers of Omicron, but its impact is already being felt. Researchers at Harvard Medical School agree it's likely fueling America's surge in Covid-19 cases, Faye Flam notes in a Bloomberg column; meanwhile, public restrictions are returning in the UK, while France has banned British travelers who don't have a "compelling reason" to enter.
 
All of which gives a sense that the pandemic is back, in force. As The Economist writes, Omicron's key quality appears to be fast spread, though it remains unclear whether Omicron produces as-severe illness, compared to other variants. Vaccination seems to offer some protection—particularly against serious sickness—but still, health systems could be overwhelmed with hospitalizations, the magazine warns.
 
"In a report published on December 15th the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warned that a range of enhanced precautions were now necessary, including reduced contact in social and work settings, fewer large gatherings, more mask-wearing and more testing," the magazine writes. "Reducing travel and mixing between households and generations over the holidays may also be on the cards. Some countries are sure to see tougher measures soon; some individuals are already taking them. But if the perception that Omicron is not so dangerous—whether well founded or not—becomes widespread, people may see little reason to adhere to stricter rules. … [T]he growth rates seen so far strongly suggest that time is best measured in days, maybe weeks. Exponential growth is a dizzying thing."

Have US Sanctions Reached Their Limit?

As the US confronts Russia over the latter's troop buildup near Ukraine, economic sanctions loom as Washington's likeliest reprisal, should Moscow invade (again). But would they work?
 
"Russia is already heavily sanctioned," Megan Greene writes for the Financial Times. "After its annexation of Crimea in 2014 the US imposed travel bans, asset freezes, finance and trade restrictions and a ban on assistance to Russian oil and gas companies. … [Those measures] do not seem to have resolved the Ukraine crisis, reduced human rights violations in Russia or deterred new cyber attacks. They have no doubt knocked a few points off Russian GDP growth, but the economy has nevertheless adapted."
 
The US has relied on sanctions substantially in recent years, but their impact seems to be diminishing, and they irk allies, Greene writes; in the view of Greene and others, they may have reached a point of over-use.

Chile's Choice

Chile will vote Sunday in the runoff round of its presidential election, and Dave Lawler writes for Axios that far-right candidate José Antonio Kast looks competitive. "Running on a law-and-order platform," Kast "has praised [former dictator Augusto] Pinochet's legacy, proposed a border trench to keep out migrants, and opposed the decision last week by Chile's Congress to legalize same-sex marriage," Lawler notes. Meanwhile, the left-leaning Gabriel Boric has been associated by opponents with communism, but he may not be as revolutionary as some fear, Robert L. Funk writes for Americas Quarterly. 
 
The stark choice will be made as Chile's constitution is being rewritten by an elected convention comprised largely of political newcomers, setting the stage for an experiment in Latin American governance after massive protests rocked the country in 2019.

Must the World Live With a Nuclear Iran?

After the most recent round of Iran-nuclear talks stalled in Vienna, Mahjoob Zweirki and Lakshmi Venugopal Menon write for Middle East Eye that Israel seems to want the US to attack Iranian facilities to halt Tehran's progress toward a bomb. But at Project Syndicate, Shlomo Ben-Ami suggests little can be done, militarily—an air campaign would struggle to eliminate Iran's "well-dispersed" nuclear facilities, Ben-Ami writes, and would lead to a major war—and Iran has incentives to keep advancing its nuclear program.
 
"The talks in Vienna can still lead to an agreement," Ben-Ami writes. "But, with Iran's leaders largely convinced that a nuclear weapon is their best protection, the only durable way to prevent Iran from … building an operational nuclear weapon probably lies in regime change. … Given how resilient the Islamic Republic has proven to be, it seems that the world may well eventually have to tolerate an Iranian nuclear bomb, just as it has learned to live with the Indian and Pakistani arsenals."