The Manchin Effect 📉
The world: Cool it's almost Christmas, let's just chill this week. Omicron: LOL. Let's get into it. 💸 MANCHIN'S MOMENT Senator Joe Manchin's decision to torpedo the Biden economic agenda isn't just a vote to plunge millions of children into poverty but also dims the entire country's economic outlook. And that's not my opinion, that's Goldman Sachs' bottom-line assessment.
The bank said it no longer assumes Biden's nearly $2 trillion Build Back Better plan will pass, and that's bad news for our pandemic-battered economy.
Goldman Sachs now expects gross domestic product to grow at an annualized pace of 2% in the first quarter, down from 3% previously.
The bank specifically pointed to the expiration of the child tax credit in trimming its forecast, calling it the "most important question for the near-term outlook."
Here's the deal: The first installment of the expanded child tax credit went out in July, and immediately lifted 3 million kids out of poverty by putting about $300 a month per kid directly into parents' bank accounts, according to a Columbia University study. The program sunsets in January, but Build Back Better would have extended it for another year.
Per Goldman Sachs: While there is "some chance" that Congress extends the credit retroactively, "the odds of this happening seem to be less than even at this point."
Joe Manchin has balked at the cost of Build Back Better. That's despite Treasury Department data showing the payments have been spent on essential expenses — primarily food, clothing and costs related to school and afterschool programs.
MY TAKE This is an unconscionable decision by Manchin, whose own state of West Virginia is home to 346,000 children benefiting from the tax credit. His opposition is ideological – the Democrats are over-spending on social programs that will exacerbate inflation. Never mind that 17 Nobel Prize-winning economists have said that's false — in the long term, the plan would actually ease inflation — and have come out in support of Build Back Better. But even if you ignore all of that, it doesn't change the fact that we're in a pandemic that is still upending our lives, and many people simply cannot return to work for fear of getting sick or because they lack child-care options. That's not because they're lazy, it's because there's a literal deadly virus with a vice grip on the global economy.
#️⃣ NUMBER OF THE DAY $11 billion Elon Musk, the world's wealthiest person, who has legally avoided paying income taxes in the past, tweeted over the weekend that his tax bill this year will be $11 billion. CNN Business' Chris Isidore says that tracks with filings Musk has made recently with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (Man, I hope he can still afford literally anything he wants all the time with his still-virtually-unlimited funds.)
📉 MARKETS PLUNGE Here we are, easing into a slow week before Christmas when everyone can sorta coast, right? Apparently not.
Stocks and oil prices tanked on Monday for a couple of reasons.
The Dow fell more than 430 points, or 1.2%, on Monday. The S&P 500 was down 1.1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.2%. Benchmark Brent crude prices were down more than 4% to below $71 a barrel. Major stock market indexes in Europe also fell by about 1%. Most Asian markets suffered bigger drops.
WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON? 🐄 The Great Cream Cheese Shortage of 2021 appears to be the work of hackers who targeted Schreiber Foods, the largest US cheese manufacturer, knocking the plant offline for a few days in October.
🏔️ The World Economic Forum is delaying its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, scheduled for mid-January, until early summer because of uncertainty over the Omicron outbreak.
⚖️ The state of California is suing Walmart for allegedly disposing of hazardous waste at a rate of "more than one million items each year."
⚠️ Procter & Gamble has recalled more than 30 aerosol spray haircare products, including many dry shampoos and dry conditioners, warning that the products could contain benzene, a cancer-causing agent.
📺 Jim Cramer of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" tested positive for Covid-19 – and went on air to talk about it.
💰 Disney and Google resolved a financial dispute and restored more than a dozen Disney-owned channels on YouTube TV.
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