Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. March 29, 2022 |
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As the war appears to be progressing toward a violent stalemate, CNN's Tim Lister notes cautious optimism surrounding talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled readiness to discuss multiple points, and Russia has said it will "drastically reduce" its assault on the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv. The Economist suggests Moscow could turn its focus to Ukraine's east, backing away from its designs on the whole country.
Not everyone is hopeful.
At The Wall Street Journal, Jillian Kay Melchior writes that the western-Ukrainian city of Lviv is bracing for an onslaught, while Anna Matveeva of the British security think tank RUSI sees three possible scenarios unfolding: a quick diplomatic settlement, as protracted war advantages no one; five or so months of continued fighting, followed by a "truce" and a new agreement on Russia-backed separatist regions in Ukraine's east; or the worst-case scenario, a "Syria 2.0" of protracted war and "massive suffering and devastation."
Questioning the possibility of achieving true peace at all, Thomas D. Grant warns in the Journal that the examples of Georgia and Moldova show Russian coercion and support for breakaway regions can continue past the end of active conflict. |
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Drawing parallels to Hitler and Churchill, Margaret MacMillan observes in a Foreign Affairs essay that the individual leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has "determined the shape of" this war.
"In Russia," MacMillan writes, "Putin has re-established the highly centralized leadership style of Stalin, or of the tsars he admires so much. ... Yet it is already clear that one of Putin's biggest mistakes was not take into account the personal qualities and resolve of the man whose country he was invading, a man who chose not to flee or surrender but to stay and fight. And that decision of Zelensky's has already had momentous consequences. … What happens next will depend on many different things, from the resolution of the Ukrainians themselves to the volume and type of weapons each side will acquire. But it will also depend on the decisions and leadership of the key players." |
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Cold Water on Regime Change |
After US President Joe Biden suggested Putin "cannot remain in power"—going off script during a speech in Poland and requiring White House clarification—reaction to the comment has varied. Since before Biden's comment, some have essentially supported the idea of seeking Putin's ouster, though not through military means. In a Foreign Affairs essay, for instance, Stephen E. Biegun and David J. Kramer suggest targeting anti-Putin propaganda at Russian citizens, soldiers, and domestic security forces. Others, like the Financial Times' Edward Luce, suggest Biden's comment reflected what many Western leaders may think privately—but that it also revealed a large gap between wishes and possibilities and stoked disagreement over whether it's a good idea to say such a thing aloud. At The Guardian, Rajan Menon dismisses as fanciful any Western hope that a coup could easily remove Putin from office or that, if one did, significant turmoil wouldn't result. |
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Zelensky on Western Differences |
As Zelensky recently told Fareed, Ukraine seeks Western arms and integration. Zelensky made similar points in an interview with The Economist published Sunday, while noting differences among Western countries.
Germany has taken a measured approach to the war, Zelensky said. France has eschewed escalation with Russia, in his view; the UK seems more eager to assist Ukraine. The US, Zelensky said, "has pushed a lot of countries to help us, but a little bit more slowly than we needed."
"Everyone has varied interests," Zelensky told the magazine. "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia … For other countries, it would be better if the war ended quickly, because Russia's market is a big one that their economies are suffering … Other, truly wealthy countries, recognize Nazism in Russia and definitely want Ukraine to be victorious. And there are still other countries, smaller countries, which support us completely, but they are more liberal states and concerned with humanitarian issues. … And then there is the category of countries wanting the war to end quickly in any way possible because they can be considered as 'the offices of the Russian Federation in Europe.'" |
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Madeleine Albright's Legacy |
America's first female secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, passed away at the age of 84 last week. A past GPS guest, Albright is being remembered not just in high-profile obituaries—later Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Albright "a woman of action, especially when facing injustice," whose voice will be missed acutely—but by those who worked and studied under her, as a generous mentor; as a figure revered by Bosnians; and as someone who understood the strife of conflict and flight, as her own family fled Czechoslovakia after both a Nazi invasion and a communist coup. |
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