The Calm Before the Surge: Atlantic Hurricane Season Poised for Late-September Spike
Pryor, OK — September 15, 2025
Despite reaching the climatological peak of hurricane season on September 10, the Atlantic basin has remained eerily quiet. For the first time in nearly a decade, no named storm was active on the peak day—a rarity that has meteorologists both puzzled and cautious.
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced six named storms, including one major hurricane—Erin, which reached Category 5 strength but never made landfall2. The lull is attributed to a combination of dry Saharan air, high wind shear, and stable atmospheric conditions that have suppressed storm formation3.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue described the basin as a “ghost town,” while others warned that the quiet may be temporary. Historically, about 70% of hurricane activity occurs between mid-September and October.
The National Hurricane Center had been monitoring Invest 91L, a tropical wave off the coast of Africa, with high hopes it would become Tropical Storm Gabrielle. However, the system struggled against dry air and dissipated before reaching the Caribbean5.
Still, forecasters caution that the Atlantic is entering a more favorable phase. The Madden–Julian Oscillation, a climate pattern known to boost storm activity, is expected to strengthen in the coming weeks.
Experts warn that “homegrown” storms—those forming in the Gulf of Mexico or near the southeastern U.S. coast—can develop rapidly and leave little time for preparation3. With ocean temperatures in the Gulf reaching record highs, any disturbance could quickly intensify.
“This lull is deceptive,” said Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center. “Conditions are aligning for a potentially active second half of the season.”
